Hi folks. I'm really curious, how do you forecast the profitability of a game? I'm refering to a browser based game that sells in game cash item. And I mean precisely how do I go about forecasting the sales revenue a game like that will make? I have been told to look at the sales similar games in the genre and industry make and to use them as a benchmark. However i can't find the sales figure of similar games anywhere, similar games exist but they don't publicize their revenue earnings. How then do you go about getting an accurate estimate of a game's potential earnings?
Sorry obviously an amateur here, would appreciate some help please thank you.
It is a chicken-and-egg problem.
It should be part of your business plan. Hoping to release a single product one time and getting rich is not a business plan.
You need numbers for very similar items. Numbers are a trade secret. So you need to get some numbers for your first product and apply to them to your second product or updates to the product.
This one is easy and common: No established brand + no userbase + no marketing ~= 0 users.
So you need to use marketing to expand both your user base and to establish your brand. Track what happens, and you establish your own metrics. Do something. (Probably do some marketing. Possibly expand your existing product or release a new product.) Measure; how much did it improve your user base or brand awareness? If not, do something different. Repeat and tune as long as you remain in business.