When does rational thinking fail?

Tristan · 2011-03-28T03:41:51

Here's an old paradox where the rationalist might not have the upper hand . What do you guys think? Of course there's a good chance you've read this one before...if so share your thoughts. An alien comes from many stars away and explains to you that he has the power to predict how you'll make decisions. You are convinced based upon seeing him correctly predict other humans' decisions that he can do this. You're not absolutely 100% sure, but you are 99.99% sure, as sure as we can be of anything in this life. With this in mind, the alien sets up the following experiment: he gives you two sealed boxes, called A and B. Inside A is $100, and that is a sure thing. Inside of B is either nothing or $1,000,000. The alien says that you are free to take either just box B or to take both boxes. The catch is that he has already made his prediction about which choice you'll make. If he predicted that you'll only take B then he generously stuffed it with the one million (he tells you this). If he predicted that you'll take both boxes then he put nothing in B. After leaving the boxes, the alien departs in his spaceship never to return, leaving you to ponder this decision. Do you take both of the boxes? Or only box B? This riddle is terribly interesting to me because it is one of the few scenarios where rigidly rational decisions making leads to a less optimal outcome than more "stupid" decision making. But isn't that a contradiction in terms? To me, this paradox illustrates the limits of rationality, or maybe that we just think about rationality in the wrong way. to choose to take either just B or to take A and B.

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Started by highbulp March 26, 2011 08:35 AM

42 comments, last by way2lazy2care 13 years ago

way2lazy2care

793

March 28, 2011 02:28 AM

Are u dumb or are you drunk? The alien didn't assume shit. He predicted with 99.9% of accuracy what you would do. If you try to come out with 1000100 dollars you'll only get 100: THE ALIEN WARNED YOU ABOUT THAT. Why are you still trying to do so?

owl

376

March 28, 2011 02:35 AM

[quote name='owl' timestamp='1301278103' post='4791176']
Are u dumb or are you drunk? The alien didn't assume shit. He predicted with 99.9% of accuracy what you would do. If you try to come out with 1000100 dollars you'll only get 100: THE ALIEN WARNED YOU ABOUT THAT. Why are you still trying to do so?

it still doesn't matter. The boxes are already filled. Your choice is erroneous. One contains 100 bucks, one contains x where x is 0 or 1,000,000. Neither is negative. A+B where B is non negative number is always >= A.

Like my third paragraph said, really it is just the alien being a dick. The order in which he takes action towards being a dick does not make him less of a dick. His dickery aside though, A+B>=A.
[/quote]

It's implied in the premise that the alien can be trusted, I mean, nowhere it's said it has titties. I mean: What kind of woman would give you one millon dollars and walk away without wanting something in return?

EDIT: And when I say "something" I mean: Your Eternal Soul.

[size="2"]I like the Walrus best.

mrchrismnh

March 28, 2011 02:37 AM

The sum has to be high enough the people would miss getting it and also low enough that people won't say "forget it a sure thing is better than a million". A hundred is too low. Fifty thousand might make the choice a lot crueler.

"It's like naming him Asskicker Monstertrucktits O'Ninja" -Khaiy

way2lazy2care

793

March 28, 2011 03:41 AM

It's implied in the premise that the alien can be trusted, I mean, nowhere it's said it has titties. I mean: What kind of woman would give you one millon dollars and walk away without wanting something in return?

There are plenty of honest dicks in the world. That doesn't make them not dicks.

When does rational thinking fail?

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When does rational thinking fail?

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