I am perfectly happy with Windows 7. Using myself as a barometer for the market, I'm going to say that pretty much everyone else is probably quite happy with Win7. Why upgrade to Win8? What compelling feature do they have which I absolutely must have? The Microsoft app store? As a user, do I really want to fork out $X number of dollars so that I can log onto the app store to buy useless widgets and apps which third party developers have created to cash in on mass market appeal? No, not really (but I'm a tight wad).
As a developer, here are the things I don't like about Microsoft:
1. Visual Studio costs lots of money!!! VS2012 Ultimate is $13,000!!! I get it, it's a great product and its got all the bells and whistles a large corporate dev team could want, but as a single indie dev, it's way out of my price range. Yeah, I could use the express edition, but I'd rather decide what features of the IDE I don't want to use rather than having that decision made for me by licensing. Other IDE's for different platforms and languages are free (eclipse for Java, XCode for iOS).
2. If you want to code for the MS platform using their API's (DirectX, XNA, .NET), you get locked in to the MS ecosystem. This limits the market base you can target. Java apps, on the other hand, will work on any platform which can run and support the JVM. You don't have to run any VM's or third party software. (note: the VM is included in the JVM). Making .NET available on non-MS products is contrary to Microsofts big picture business plan -- to build and run an MS controlled ecosystem.
3. I just don't take their store seriously as a viable platform. Look at XBox Live Arcade. Very, very few developers strike gold. Maybe its a market demographics and saturation problem. Maybe its an overall business plan issue. And, the win8 app store is supposed to be different and better...how?
Things I'm uncertain about:
1. The pricing structure for selling apps in the windows store.
Microsoft Source: When you sell apps through the Windows Store, we assess a Windows Store fee. For apps that generate less than $25,000 in sales, this fee is 30%. After the app generates its first $25,000 in sales, the fee on the subsequent revenue drops to 20%.
Considering how I'm already slightly biased against it and a little reluctant to spend time, effort and money on developing a Win8 app in the first place, if all MS does is match their digital distribution competitors at a 30% take, I will be even more hesitant. They'd better sweeten the pot a bit and go down to 25% at the least, and ideally 20% overall. The first $30k should be all mine! Everyone wants their slice of my pie (government taxes & Microsoft)! Once I cover my development costs, I'd be willing to split the revenue a bit more generously... if I was going to charge.
2. The windows app store doesn't support a "donate directly to me, whatever you want, whenever you want" business model. That means no humble indie bundles or shareware. Obviously, they'd cut themselves out as the middle man so its not in their interests. So, when they're reviewing your product, they probably wouldn't like it if your app circumvents them from getting their share. So, what about in-app purchases of virtual goods which are a transaction strictly between the developer and the player? Would that get rejected by the certification process?
3. I've got a leery feeling that MS isn't looking out for my best interests as a developer. I'm just a necessary pawn they need to entice in order to reclaim lost territory in the digital distribution market. I do get that warm and fuzzy feeling when I think of Valve, who will help me market and distribute my game and has had a history of selflessly having mine and my users best interests at heart. Initially, it'd be good to be courted by MS because they'll bend over backwards for dev support, but if/when they get their appetites satiated, I worry that they'll get beligerant/cocky and I'll find myself kicked to the curb with all my eggs in their basket.
The only two reasons I can think of to play in the Windows Store market:
1. It's a new market, so getting in early would make it easier for me to capture market share with a polished app.
2. There will be a lot of eyeballs using Win8, all of which are potential customers. MS is
still the dominate OS on the desktop.