Jump to content

  • Log In with Google      Sign In   
  • Create Account

We're offering banner ads on our site from just $5!

1. Details HERE. 2. GDNet+ Subscriptions HERE. 3. Ad upload HERE.


What are your predictions about the future of gaming?


Old topic!
Guest, the last post of this topic is over 60 days old and at this point you may not reply in this topic. If you wish to continue this conversation start a new topic.

  • You cannot reply to this topic
37 replies to this topic

#1 Shaquil   Members   -  Reputation: 815

Posted 16 December 2012 - 11:25 PM

After the recent little Ray Kurzweil debacle, I've been thinking about what I personally think the future might hold. Obviously, predicting this kind of stuff is challenging. So why not just limit it more, and talk specifically about gaming? Particularly, what do you think the gaming world is going to look like in, say, 2017? My predictions are below, but I'd rather you post yours than read and respond to mine, if anything.


My predictions:

Consoles:
  • Ouya will launch in 2013 and make virtually no impact. Its game line-up will be a list of unappealing ports. Worse, only two months later Microsoft and Sony will steal all attention by announcing their new consoles at E3.
  • Both consoles will better support streaming of games, and Sony's console will allow any publisher--at their own discretion--to lock discs in a way that prevents them from being resold. Microsoft's console will come equipped by default with an improved kinect, or kinect-like device, and its marketing will be mainly directed at casuals.
  • Microsoft's new console will have a seemingly rushed launch to meet Holiday Season 2013, and Sony will promise a Q1 2014 release, although it may possibly be pushed by then.
  • In summer 2013, Valve finally starts talking in more detail about their steam console, although we have no known release date. Throughout the summer it will release more details and information, gauging excitement. Valve avoided E3 because they saw the console announcements coming.
  • Valve's steam box launches Summer 2014 alongside some new Half Life content, and a new IP
  • These 3, with the Wii U, will be the home console options through to 2020.

PC:
  • Windows 8's app store will aggressively force top-tier developers to release on that platform as well as Steam. Steam is not going to touch Windows 8 with a 10-foot pole, although Users can still download Windows 7 steam on the Windows 7 desktop in Windows 8 (confusing, slightly, but this is how it is for now).
  • Steam will try to slowly shift its weight onto Linux, the Mac and its new home console, but none of these paths will succeed. Most hardcore gamers are more likely to switch from Windows 7 to 8 than 7 to Linux. Many Linux distros aren't very well supported by the very expensive hardware these gamers have spent hundreds on (see: Gigabyte mobos), and Steam will always be available for them on Windows 7 (along with other game distribution platforms like gog, desura).
  • Windows 9 will launch in 2015, backwards compatible with Windows 8 but not at all compatible with Windows 7 or prior. You won't be able to access apps except through the Windows 9/8 app store. Steam is nowhere to be found here.


Sponsor:

#2 Tom Sloper   Moderators   -  Reputation: 10148

Posted 16 December 2012 - 11:32 PM

Wearable games. See Google Glass and Valve's Terminator Vision. Extrapolate that to wearable glasses that talk via Bluetooth to one's smartphone, with its GPS and compass features, and you'll see the applicability to multi-player games that could make players look really dumb to non-players.
-- Tom Sloper
Sloperama Productions
Making games fun and getting them done.
www.sloperama.com

Please do not PM me. My email address is easy to find, but note that I do not give private advice.

#3 Alpha_ProgDes   Crossbones+   -  Reputation: 4692

Posted 17 December 2012 - 01:23 AM

If the console generation lasts up to 2030, certainly by then I believe there's gonna be a huge shift to VR-glasses and VR games. I'd say games are going to made to be VR-ready if not VR-only. Good bye, monitors (at least for games) Posted Image

Remote controls and tablets are played out, so to speak. Kinect-like devices still have a future, but VR glasses/helmets is where it's at.

Edited by Alpha_ProgDes, 17 December 2012 - 01:24 AM.

Beginner in Game Development? Read here.
 
Super Mario Bros clone tutorial written in XNA 4.0 [MonoGame, ANX, and MonoXNA] by Scott Haley
 
If you have found any of the posts helpful, please show your appreciation by clicking the up arrow on those posts Posted Image
 
Spoiler

#4 Code Fox   Members   -  Reputation: 1804

Posted 17 December 2012 - 02:10 AM

Casual "disposable" games will continue to rise in popularity ( games with a shelf life of less than 2 years ).
Game development it's self will continue to slow down - story lines and game play are already really repetitive , imagine how bad it's going to get in 10 years.
Game play will continue to be dumbed down to the point "every one" can play.
The game market will be absolutely flooded by rushed, cheaply made games - much worse than it already is.

Edited by Shippou, 17 December 2012 - 02:10 AM.

Does Anyone Actually Read This ?
 


#5 Sik_the_hedgehog   Crossbones+   -  Reputation: 1833

Posted 17 December 2012 - 02:19 AM

Worse, only two months later Microsoft and Sony will steal all attention by announcing their new consoles at E3.

To be fair, I have the feeling Sony won't announce their console the next E3 but the one after that, and they'll slowly start getting pushed into irrelevance...

Sony's console will allow any publisher--at their own discretion--to lock discs in a way that prevents them from being resold.

I have discussed this before with somebody else, the only way this could be ever possible is by either having a custom serial code for each disc which then is checked against a server or by having a writable part in the disc which gets modified the first time it's run to include the serial code of the console where it's first run (and then watch many discs get bricked due to power outages, crashes, defective drives, etc.).

It'd be much easier and probably cheaper to just make the games download-only to achieve the same result.

Microsoft's console will come equipped by default with an improved kinect, or kinect-like device, and its marketing will be mainly directed at casuals.

At the rate it's going, I'd say their console won't be even remotely related to gaming anymore, to the point of just being an unimportant tick in a checklist.

Valve's steam box launches Summer 2014 alongside some new Half Life content, and a new IP

Half-Life 3? *dodges tomatoes*

Steam will try to slowly shift its weight onto Linux, the Mac and its new home console, but none of these paths will succeed. Most hardcore gamers are more likely to switch from Windows 7 to 8 than 7 to Linux.

Most hardcore PC gamers also don't like being as enclosed as Windows 8 pretends to be. Probably Steam won't be able to put much weight on Mac, but it will probably have an impact with Linux, especially when put together to all the other gaming things that are starting to add Linux options at the same time.

Many Linux distros aren't very well supported by the very expensive hardware these gamers have spent hundreds on (see: Gigabyte mobos)

Wait, isn't this the very problem they're trying to fix right now?

Windows 9 will launch in 2015, backwards compatible with Windows 8 but not at all compatible with Windows 7 or prior. You won't be able to access apps except through the Windows 9/8 app store. Steam is nowhere to be found here.

If Microsoft does that Windows is pretty much over.



Now for one wild definition on my end, which I doubt would happen, but hey, who knows =P Consoles and PC may eventually merge into one... just not the way everyone expects. If somebody was to make a console that's open enough to allow anybody make and distribute games for it without permission (but still with the same kind of hardware design as your usual console) and it became popular enough, it could potentially go as far as becoming a new standard for hardware and even shift the current PC hardware (especially if a custom model based on those specs which is more suited for a computer was to be made). Yes, that'd be PC merging with a console instead of the other way.
Don't pay much attention to "the hedgehog" in my nick, it's just because "Sik" was already taken =/ By the way, Sik is pronounced like seek, not like sick.

#6 Magdev   Members   -  Reputation: 197

Posted 17 December 2012 - 03:30 AM

Based on the current trends from what I know, I'm predicting:

-An increase in casual games
They sell extremely well. There's a very large market for casual games, though they don't have very high of value, the large market makes up for it.

-An increase in social network integration
With the increase in social networking in general in the past five years, I've been seeing more and more games with it. I personally find it really pointless, but it's worth noting.

-An increase in mobile games
Mobile and tablet gaming are also an extremely quickly growing market, some even argue it's the "future of gaming". Mobile games often go hand-in-hand with casual gaming, but there are exceptions.

-An increase in independently developed games
Over the past few years, indie games have become pretty popular since games like Super Meat Boy, Braid, Minecraft, Limbo, etc. have proven to be very successful yet independently developed.

-A decrease in gameplay complexity and an increase in graphics technology in commercially-produced games
Some time ago, some genius investor speculated that good graphics means good money. More and more resources are being aimed towards making games look as good as possible. You can even say it's essential these days. If your game has subpar visuals, it'll be left in the dust. The complexity of the game suffers heavily.

-A heavier focus on "apps"
With Windows 8 coming out, it looks like bad news for PC game developers to me, since it's clearly aimed more towards tablets and mobile phones, meaning most of the applications for Windows 8 will probably be presented in a fun-sized app format.

-More exploration of new types of user I/O
If the Occulus Rift does well, I'm predicting that it'll spark the I/O device market, with more head-mounted display and VR stuff to come out in the years to come. Stuff like this has been around since the Wii came out, but I think it'll start to really grow soon.

The SteamBox seems promising. I haven't read up on it too much, but I believe it'll transform the console market into something a little bit better.

#7 Exodus111   Members   -  Reputation: 148

Posted 17 December 2012 - 03:37 AM

My prediction for console.
  • Ouyia will be the home for Indy console developers, while it will go unnoticed at first, the Indy world is a place for innovation and will attract attention as the years go by.
My Predictions for PC:
  • People will not migrate to windows 8. They will stay with Windows 7, and as time goes by we will see a trickle of users looking for alternatives to PC. Some will go to apple, some will go to Linux, some will go to Windows 8. All in all the Microsoft domination will never be what it was.
  • Linux will rise. There are things happening in the world of Linux gaming that will bear fruit in the next few years.


#8 phantom   Moderators   -  Reputation: 7555

Posted 17 December 2012 - 04:11 AM

People will not migrate to windows 8. They will stay with Windows 7


http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey

4.25% using Windows 8 x64
Total OSX reported (all versions) : 3.26%

"Linux will rise" has been the rallying call since at least 1999 when I first 'discovered' it... 13 years later I'm still waiting...

#9 Exodus111   Members   -  Reputation: 148

Posted 17 December 2012 - 06:28 AM


People will not migrate to windows 8. They will stay with Windows 7


http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey

4.25% using Windows 8 x64
Total OSX reported (all versions) : 3.26%

"Linux will rise" has been the rallying call since at least 1999 when I first 'discovered' it... 13 years later I'm still waiting...


Pretty much the response of anyone who've used Linux for a long time.
But think about the way Linux looks right now, vs only 5 years ago.
While there are still pillars in place that is obstructing the rise of Linux, modern technology and opportunities in the market are challenging those pillars every day.
And the mere fact that people have been saying Linux will rise for the past 20+ years, speaks to its potential in the market.
Right now we are living in exiting times, changes are on their way that will challenge the old paradigm.
Changes like the constant improvement of hardware and software, making game creation easier today then it has EVER been, look at the rise of 2D indy games, how long before these same possibilities break into the world of 3d gaming? Look at kickstarter.com right now, its happening.
Change is never good for the ruling class, odds are those systems with the best survivability will be the systems of future generations.

#10 slicer4ever   Crossbones+   -  Reputation: 3979

Posted 17 December 2012 - 06:36 AM



People will not migrate to windows 8. They will stay with Windows 7


http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey

4.25% using Windows 8 x64
Total OSX reported (all versions) : 3.26%

"Linux will rise" has been the rallying call since at least 1999 when I first 'discovered' it... 13 years later I'm still waiting...


Pretty much the response of anyone who've used Linux for a long time.
But think about the way Linux looks right now, vs only 5 years ago.
While there are still pillars in place that is obstructing the rise of Linux, modern technology and opportunities in the market are challenging those pillars every day.
And the mere fact that people have been saying Linux will rise for the past 20+ years, speaks to its potential in the market.
Right now we are living in exiting times, changes are on their way that will challenge the old paradigm.


I'm sorry, but linux isn't going to be adopted by the masses, at least not for a very long time, hell, their's still problems with getting people to upgrade from IE6, or windows xp.

In the end, keep believing, and those whom are seriously into computers well adopt, but it's never going to become mainstream unless some company can spear head a ton of pr for it. (and this isn't even talking about the problems breaking into the corporate world for usage other than being a server.)
Check out https://www.facebook.com/LiquidGames for some great games made by me on the Playstation Mobile market.

#11 Memories are Better   Prime Members   -  Reputation: 769

Posted 17 December 2012 - 07:02 AM

MS will release DX12, everyone will scream go mad and return to Windows, despite no actual game being made in DX12.

Sound familiar :P

I dont see MS going anywhere, especially not by Apple

#12 phantom   Moderators   -  Reputation: 7555

Posted 17 December 2012 - 08:27 AM

Pretty much the response of anyone who've used Linux for a long time.
But think about the way Linux looks right now, vs only 5 years ago.
While there are still pillars in place that is obstructing the rise of Linux, modern technology and opportunities in the market are challenging those pillars every day.
And the mere fact that people have been saying Linux will rise for the past 20+ years, speaks to its potential in the market.


Yes yes, of course THIS TIME it will be different... I've been hearing that tired line since 2000 after the last 'year of the linux desk top' failed.
They said when Vista was released 'this is linux time!'
When DX11 was locked to Windows 7 it was linux/opengl's time!

And yet here we are, Windows still owns the desktop market, Win8 is making inroads for the 'hard core' Steam users (significant because everyone said that Windows 8 would flop worse than Vista) and Linux remains the firm third place and continues to be rife with political bs which will, ultimately, stop it 'rising' until one company gets behind it and uses it as a base to make their 'windows' (much like Apple did with BSD for OSX), at which point the Linux fanbase will turn on said company and around we go...

Right now we are living in exiting times, changes are on their way that will challenge the old paradigm.
Changes like the constant improvement of hardware and software, making game creation easier today then it has EVER been, look at the rise of 2D indy games, how long before these same possibilities break into the world of 3d gaming? Look at kickstarter.com right now, its happening.


We've been living in 'exiting times' for ages now, changes are happening all the time and paradigm changes have come and gone... I remember when Java was going to save the world, you wrote your code once and it ran anywhere, how'd that work out? I'm not sure if this is the 2nd or third try at the 'thin client' cloud/web model of computing but the idea has come around again.

Indy games were the normal for ages, they have just come around again...
Kickstarter is great, but until a project finishes backed on it I'll reserve my judgement, more importantly how people react when projects which HAVE got the funding fail and they release they have sunk money into NOTHING... that'll be the intresting turning point.

Change is never good for the ruling class, odds are those systems with the best survivability will be the systems of future generations.


Change is happening all the time... the only thing which remains constant is those who aren't, to use your term, the 'rule classes' seek to be because they believe they would never make the same mistakes as those who have come before them not realising that they themselves will become that same ruling class they wanted to over turn.

#13 Shaquil   Members   -  Reputation: 815

Posted 17 December 2012 - 08:41 AM

Worse, only two months later Microsoft and Sony will steal all attention by announcing their new consoles at E3.

To be fair, I have the feeling Sony won't announce their console the next E3 but the one after that, and they'll slowly start getting pushed into irrelevance...

Sony's console will allow any publisher--at their own discretion--to lock discs in a way that prevents them from being resold.

I have discussed this before with somebody else, the only way this could be ever possible is by either having a custom serial code for each disc which then is checked against a server or by having a writable part in the disc which gets modified the first time it's run to include the serial code of the console where it's first run (and then watch many discs get bricked due to power outages, crashes, defective drives, etc.).

It'd be much easier and probably cheaper to just make the games download-only to achieve the same result.


Although games journalists continue to push the idea that "download-only" is going to be the main model in the near future, they fail to see past their own social bias. The fact is, most people who have an internet connection have restrictive caps, and even those without caps don't quite have the reliability to download Fallout 4 on the night of release and be playing in a few hours. This is more and more the case outside of countries like America, Japan and the UK, where gamers are most concentrated, but it is still a great limitation. But even in these three major countries, most people just can't be arsed to download a 20 gig game.

Beyond that, there is also an entire market of gamers who, prior to Gamestop's big push for used games, actually played much fewer games per year because they didn't have the money to support the hobby (myself included). For many of these people, a download-only console is a clear message that console gaming isn't the right way to go. The same argument goes for the idea of "restricting games to a console to prevent resale" but that's why I think it will be an option only, probably used mostly on Sony games in specific.

Now for one wild definition on my end, which I doubt would happen, but hey, who knows =P Consoles and PC may eventually merge into one... just not the way everyone expects. If somebody was to make a console that's open enough to allow anybody make and distribute games for it without permission (but still with the same kind of hardware design as your usual console) and it became popular enough, it could potentially go as far as becoming a new standard for hardware and even shift the current PC hardware (especially if a custom model based on those specs which is more suited for a computer was to be made). Yes, that'd be PC merging with a console instead of the other way.


Haha that's what Windows 7 is at this point, and we see even Microsoft is running away from that. I think you've got a beautiful dream here, but the problem is an open platform like this would require some unified form of distribution and marketing, which would mean that at least in some small way there'd need to be a central hub on this console for users to have games and applications curated for them. That's the reason things like Steam can even exist these days. It's not like games are Steam-exclusive--developers and gamers have just agreed that Steam is where they'll meet to exchange, rather than on scattered and sometimes questionable websites. Although your idea in theory makes sense, I just don't see consumers headed in that direction. Right now users are on smart phones, consoles, and--counting the success of Steam, Desura and GoG--even desktops that have curated marketplaces that make decisions for the user. I think this was the ultimate conclusion of decades of being in the free world that was Windows; it's easier for everyone to have things at least a little closed.

#14 Lode   Members   -  Reputation: 982

Posted 17 December 2012 - 06:52 PM

At least the fact that games like Minecraft exist gives me some hope for the future.

#15 Code Fox   Members   -  Reputation: 1804

Posted 17 December 2012 - 11:13 PM

At least the fact that games like Minecraft exist gives me some hope for the future.

The MineCrafts of the world are very rare ... I would like to point out similar games ( such as Terraria ) have been a flop.
Maybe the future of games is the game's ability to accept user made content ... MineCraft has a very strong modding community - heck many older games are having a resurgence in popularity due to user made content.

Edited by Shippou, 17 December 2012 - 11:14 PM.

Does Anyone Actually Read This ?
 


#16 Kaze   Members   -  Reputation: 948

Posted 18 December 2012 - 12:49 AM

The MineCrafts of the world are very rare ... I would like to point out similar games ( such as Terraria ) have been a flop.


How was terraia a flop? It sold over a million copies and was only made by 3 people. It only lost popularity because the devs retired while so many game elements were half finished.

#17 TheChubu   Crossbones+   -  Reputation: 4746

Posted 18 December 2012 - 12:52 AM

My prediction for gaming is that in the future, we will keep playing the games instead of eating them. For the most part at least.

"I AM ZE EMPRAH OPENGL 3.3 THE CORE, I DEMAND FROM THEE ZE SHADERZ AND MATRIXEZ"

 

My journals: dustArtemis ECS framework and Making a Terrain Generator


#18 Bacterius   Crossbones+   -  Reputation: 9262

Posted 18 December 2012 - 12:52 AM

Although games journalists continue to push the idea that "download-only" is going to be the main model in the near future, they fail to see past their own social bias. The fact is, most people who have an internet connection have restrictive caps, and even those without caps don't quite have the reliability to download Fallout 4 on the night of release and be playing in a few hours. This is more and more the case outside of countries like America, Japan and the UK, where gamers are most concentrated, but it is still a great limitation. But even in these three major countries, most people just can't be arsed to download a 20 gig game.

QFT! Over here in NZ, with most internet plans available we simply cannot afford to download a 20 gigabyte game in one go. 20GB is a third of my family's monthly cap, and trust me - you do not want to go over the cap. I heard Australia is even worse.

The slowsort algorithm is a perfect illustration of the multiply and surrender paradigm, which is perhaps the single most important paradigm in the development of reluctant algorithms. The basic multiply and surrender strategy consists in replacing the problem at hand by two or more subproblems, each slightly simpler than the original, and continue multiplying subproblems and subsubproblems recursively in this fashion as long as possible. At some point the subproblems will all become so simple that their solution can no longer be postponed, and we will have to surrender. Experience shows that, in most cases, by the time this point is reached the total work will be substantially higher than what could have been wasted by a more direct approach.

 

- Pessimal Algorithms and Simplexity Analysis


#19 Sik_the_hedgehog   Crossbones+   -  Reputation: 1833

Posted 18 December 2012 - 12:59 AM

Although games journalists continue to push the idea that "download-only" is going to be the main model in the near future, they fail to see past their own social bias. The fact is, most people who have an internet connection have restrictive caps, and even those without caps don't quite have the reliability to download Fallout 4 on the night of release and be playing in a few hours. This is more and more the case outside of countries like America, Japan and the UK, where gamers are most concentrated, but it is still a great limitation. But even in these three major countries, most people just can't be arsed to download a 20 gig game.

Beyond that, there is also an entire market of gamers who, prior to Gamestop's big push for used games, actually played much fewer games per year because they didn't have the money to support the hobby (myself included). For many of these people, a download-only console is a clear message that console gaming isn't the right way to go. The same argument goes for the idea of "restricting games to a console to prevent resale" but that's why I think it will be an option only, probably used mostly on Sony games in specific.

I was trying to point out how absurd the idea of discs that can't be resold was =P

Although your idea in theory makes sense, I just don't see consumers headed in that direction. Right now users are on smart phones, consoles, and--counting the success of Steam, Desura and GoG--even desktops that have curated marketplaces that make decisions for the user.

Which reminds me: if the Steambox takes off to the point of even taking over PC, there's risk that the days of PCs as commodity hardware are pretty much over. I mean, phones and tablets took over pretty much almost all of the non-productivity activities these days, leaving games as the only thing that can't be fully migrated. If gamers leave PCs, then that'd mean the only thing left is work stuff, and then PC prices will spike like crazy as they'll be priced expecting them to be bought by businesses. I don't think it'll happen, but it's in a quite dangerous position at the moment.

Also I said my theory was unlikely to happen. In fact, Apple has pretty much managed to prove that both users and developers are willing to give up everything in exchange for convenience. They want the platform holder to take care of everything, even the marketing of the apps! It's pretty obvious technology is going to get even more closed over time. Don't be surprised if we eventually reach the point where even general purpose computing devices end up with the same kind of licensing deals consoles have currently, or even worse.
Don't pay much attention to "the hedgehog" in my nick, it's just because "Sik" was already taken =/ By the way, Sik is pronounced like seek, not like sick.

#20 Code Fox   Members   -  Reputation: 1804

Posted 18 December 2012 - 05:11 AM


The MineCrafts of the world are very rare ... I would like to point out similar games ( such as Terraria ) have been a flop.


How was terraia a flop? It sold over a million copies and was only made by 3 people. It only lost popularity because the devs retired while so many game elements were half finished.

I meant to say "dead in the water"

Does Anyone Actually Read This ?
 





Old topic!
Guest, the last post of this topic is over 60 days old and at this point you may not reply in this topic. If you wish to continue this conversation start a new topic.



PARTNERS