Within a game there's what is supposed to be a draw from a shuffled hand of five cards. In order to get a specific card with a certainty of 95%, I should draw log(1/20)/log(4/5) =~ 14 times. Let's say I've drawn 18 times, and still haven't seen the target card. At this point I begin to suspect that the presentation of randomly shuffled cards is either broken or disengenious.
How does one measure and test this system in order to come to the conclusion that it is no longer reasonable to claim it's working as advertised?
Edited by AngleWyrm, 18 August 2013 - 02:34 PM.