The WARP driver is a software driver, not a hardware one. Are you sure that the Intel System Analyzer tool can monitor software drivers?
According to this blog post, occlusion culling should be supported since D3D_FEATURE_LEVEL_9_2: http://blogs.msdn.com/b/chuckw/archive/2012/06/20/direct3d-feature-levels.aspx .
Your Intel 3000 card should support feature 10.1: http://www.cpu-world.com/info/Intel/Features_of_integrated_Intel_HD_graphics_units.html .
maybe my GPU doesn't support ID3D10Predicate?
ID3D10Predicate is not a feature of the graphics card. It is just a software interface used by the application to receive feedback from hardware queries. The associated feature used in this demo is the occlusion query, which should already be supported on your card.
Although, according to some google results for "intel hd 3000 hardware queries" or "intel hd 3000 occlusion queries", it doesn't support it: http://forum.unity3d.com/threads/ios-dev-intel-hd-3000-graphics-sufficient.101428/ . (tl;dr: the answerer on that forum corrects himself in a later post, saying he mistook Intel X3000 for HD3000. The HD3000 does support occlusion culling).
I also found this article about software culling, if you are interested: https://software.intel.com/en-us/blogs/2013/03/22/software-occlusion-culling-update
The only way you're gonna know why the demo doesn't work on your system is by debugging it. Unless someone else already knows about this problem and can pitch in...