Anyway this movie got me thinking about using statistical analysis to do some handicapping. Basically using trends and simulations to figure out an expected outcome for a game and then compare it against a betting line to see if it's worth betting. This weekend I wasted a bunch of hours coming up with a simple C# app that takes some basic stats on teams around points for and points against. The final results for this past weekend was 8 out of 16 picks right. Exactly the same result you'd expect from flipping a coin. :) Not amazing but at least it wasn't worse than the coin. Once I get around to adding some more variables into the simulation formula as well it might even get better.
But for this season I've already been distracted enough by this. In the offseason though I want to flesh out a more detailed system taking everything from yardage to temperature into account. I think letting a neural net go wild on something like that and comparing against the last decade or so of NFL results and maybe I can come up with a system that can pick 9 out of 16. :)