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OklyDokly

I've been wondering...

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Now that 3G is starting to become mainstream, do you think that the main operators are going to start distributing native code applications OTA, as well as java applications? It certainly seems true with 3G, that the file sizes will no longer be a huge issue (since the operators are pushing sound and video content of over 2MB). There is the portability issue however, but surely a strong selling point of 3G services could be better quality, faster games. What do you all think?

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3G is the way of the future, if you can jump on the bandwagon. It's a pretty exciting technology, opening up a range of business opportunities.

Operators are looking to find another strong source of growth because everything else is slowly "evening out". Being able to send down such large files, especially video could be the next big thing for the mobile industry. Video opens up a new advertising space and content area, and just might be that thing operators are looking for to give them that strong growth they've previously seen.

Video wont be the only possible area for growth, being constantly connected at a relatively high speed opens the possibilities of new data services and maybe even that "killer app". Mobile gaming has and will continue to take full hold of this relatively high speed connection; for multiplayer games and mobile gambling.

Whilst the "killer app" may never come, there are still a lot of minor "killers" that, combined, could be the future of the mobile industry.

3G is definately a good thing that will ultimately lead to a constantly connected society.

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What do you think about Java? Do you think it will stay or do you think it will be overrun by native code?

I remember someone saying at a conference once that there is a standard for mobile phones, and it's Microsoft, it's just a matter of when they're gonna jump on the bandwagon themselves. If this is the case, Java may have a place for phone web games (kind of a 3G yahoo games thingy). All just speculation though really, and I don't think we've as yet seen Microsoft plowing any kind of serious money into mobiles.

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What exactly is "3G" - I find lots and lots of different, mostly advertisement-oriented pages on the new. What is it? Heeeelp :)

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3G == the new mobile phone standard, known as "UMTS". It's basically the successor to UMTS, and can give you up to E1 (european T1) speeds through your cell phone. There hasn't been a UMTS deployment in the US yet, and the way people screw things up here, I'm sure Qualcomm will force some incompatible standard :-( There are high-bandwidth deployments in some networks, but they're home-brew hacks AFAICT.

I believe Java will be "it" because of portability, as well as security.

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Ah, okay, UMTS is what we call it in Germany, as well (we have some UMTS nets already). I personally think that it will NOT improve anything for at least two years, and it will not change much for Games and Content developers like myself and my employer, simply because by the time UMTS really is "a big thing", the actual majority of download revenue will still come from GSM and other allegedly "obsolete" phones.

I do believe that without proper Firmware quality and less restrictive and obtrusive branding efforts of the various carriers, much of the potential that lies within UMTS will go to waste. I mean, I can't even customize my damn main menu on my SEK700i (or Z1010, to name an UMTS phone), let alone delete useless WAP shortcuts (that linger in each and every menu, just waiting to be accidentally clicked on) to replace them with useful shortcuts that I'd -honestly- use every day. We Germans have a word for this - "Dummfick". The term cannot really be transliterated, but yes, that's the German F-Word there :p

As for Java: I think Java will be 'it', as well, and unless Sun really botches this one, will be 'it' for a long time. (and I'm glad that this ominous "G3" thing didn't turn out to be competition for my beloved J2ME :D I guess it's not called G3 in Germany for two reasons - UMTS is a well-known term, and the Heckler & Koch G3 was the standard Assault Rifle for our military for a long, long time - guess someone had scruples ;)

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According to many sources 3G will not be 'mass-market' until around 2007 so, for wee companies like us, it would not make business sense for us to develop for 3G yet...having said that though, there is talk of technology being developed that will supercede 3G, but when/where it'll happen who can say...

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Comparred to the stuff thats been developed but blocked by the government (in the uk - basically to protect companies like BT) 3G is nothing. New Zealand on the other hand are implementing it, it offers gigs worth of bandwidth using low band frequiences

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