The % of making it
Author
Let's try again hehe.
http://www.sloperama.com/advice/lesson11.htm
If you look at the grid of success on this site, it shows that less than 1 % chance of getting a game sold or made is the reality of the situation.
If you look at this 1%, it's not such a bad odds, if you think about the hundreds of games started all around the world, online and offline by people... 1 in a 100 to me sounds damn good. Let's say one game of great promise comes along, I would consider a game like that to fill a greater chance of success since they are so far apart.
What do you think? Post your thoughts, if you can, without only focusing on the: ''You have to be in the business part'' which is a barrier that should and can be penetrated with enough quality and determination.
- Frank
Would you undertake surgery with a 1% survival rate? I know I wouldn't.
If just 1% of the games make it, consider the amount of manhours and money wasted on products that never see the day light. Imagine spending 4 years of your life building a game and then see it fail miserably. I know I would spend my time in a better fashion than that.
If just 1% of the games make it, consider the amount of manhours and money wasted on products that never see the day light. Imagine spending 4 years of your life building a game and then see it fail miserably. I know I would spend my time in a better fashion than that.
1% is kind of optimistic. Also it's not about the idea as is probably mentioned in that article already, it's mostly about the implementation. For a look at why 1% is optimistic look at the Help Wanted forum on this site. You'll notice there's this trend of idea men without actual skills.
quality and determination? I'd say skill and motivation. I say this since quality won't stop someone from releasing a game and determination is nothing without motivation. (Unless you're determination is fueled by something else).
Why are you asking this? Do you want someone to give you hope about an idea you have? Honestly you shouldn't cling to statistics for your own probability.
Quote:Original post by FrankDanJohansen
without only focusing on the: ''You have to be in the business part'' which is a barrier that should and can be penetrated with enough quality and determination.
quality and determination? I'd say skill and motivation. I say this since quality won't stop someone from releasing a game and determination is nothing without motivation. (Unless you're determination is fueled by something else).
Why are you asking this? Do you want someone to give you hope about an idea you have? Honestly you shouldn't cling to statistics for your own probability.
Author
This topic wasn't made for personal hope's reason, I just find the stats interesting, and that 1% can mean a lot, if you look at X number of movie scripts being written, and then look at how many of those are made into movies, the % is equally low, but a lot of talented scripts make it to the screen. 1 out of 100 games can make it, it's a damn good chance compared to the amount of crap going on around the web wouldn't you think?
The numbers on that page aren't scientific fact...
Here's another way to look at it:
Take an average professional salary - $80,000pa
Take a decent sized team - 50 people
Take a decent development schedule - 2 years
Multiply them together - $8 Million
Now double it to consider marketing/advertising/administration...
If you're a publisher, looking to gamble $16,000,000, are you going to bet it on a proven winner or some guy with a nice idea?
Even if it's a brilliant idea, you need experience, you need talent, and you need to prove that you can actually take the idea through to completion. Even the big boys have to spend hundreds of thousands of their own dollars paying their staff to create enough plans/schedules/art/tech to "prove" that they are capable, before a publisher will give them a dime.
Again, once you've got a publisher to listen by showcasing your company's experience, and then once you've got them slightly interested with a decent pitch, you've got to give them proof. To build your "prove" package so that the publisher might actually sign on to your idea:
Take an average professional salary - $80,000pa
Take a small sized team - 10 people
Take a rushed development schedule - 6 months
Multiply them together - $400,000
In other words, in order to get a publisher to bet money on you, you've first got to bet money on yourself. You can't just give them an idea and expect them to sign on, they'll want proof, and you can't give them that unless you've got a full production team.
In the 80's or early 90's some publishers would sign cheques for ideas... Times have changed; now they want schedules, they want business plans.
Quote:It is hoped that you get the general idea ... the numbers are just to illustrate a point. There is no way to actually calculate hard numbers, so I made these up
Here's another way to look at it:
Take an average professional salary - $80,000pa
Take a decent sized team - 50 people
Take a decent development schedule - 2 years
Multiply them together - $8 Million
Now double it to consider marketing/advertising/administration...
If you're a publisher, looking to gamble $16,000,000, are you going to bet it on a proven winner or some guy with a nice idea?
Even if it's a brilliant idea, you need experience, you need talent, and you need to prove that you can actually take the idea through to completion. Even the big boys have to spend hundreds of thousands of their own dollars paying their staff to create enough plans/schedules/art/tech to "prove" that they are capable, before a publisher will give them a dime.
Again, once you've got a publisher to listen by showcasing your company's experience, and then once you've got them slightly interested with a decent pitch, you've got to give them proof. To build your "prove" package so that the publisher might actually sign on to your idea:
Take an average professional salary - $80,000pa
Take a small sized team - 10 people
Take a rushed development schedule - 6 months
Multiply them together - $400,000
In other words, in order to get a publisher to bet money on you, you've first got to bet money on yourself. You can't just give them an idea and expect them to sign on, they'll want proof, and you can't give them that unless you've got a full production team.
In the 80's or early 90's some publishers would sign cheques for ideas... Times have changed; now they want schedules, they want business plans.
Author
I agree with you, I personally believe that people outside of the business can't afford a lot though, so the most realistic and possible way to show true skill and serious effort is by doing a demo. Ideas are far from enough obviously. In order to make a demo, you need all the documents ranging from the scenario, game-play system, details of everything that will be visually present equally to a game-design document.
And to get the game funded by showcasing plans and a demo you'll need the full game-design document for the whole game ready as well.
The package needs to look industry professional and needs to shine an undeniable quality equal to block-buster games. (Now I am talking console games).
I don't think making a full-length next-gen game for representation is very logical unless one of the hobbyists are filthy stinking rich haha. I guess Xbox Arcade and PSN store games can be completed prior to presentation, but not full 3D games with 'everything' so to speak.
And to get the game funded by showcasing plans and a demo you'll need the full game-design document for the whole game ready as well.
The package needs to look industry professional and needs to shine an undeniable quality equal to block-buster games. (Now I am talking console games).
I don't think making a full-length next-gen game for representation is very logical unless one of the hobbyists are filthy stinking rich haha. I guess Xbox Arcade and PSN store games can be completed prior to presentation, but not full 3D games with 'everything' so to speak.
Do publishers even fund unsolicited game projects from external people/studios these days?
Quote:Original post by Andrew Russell
Do publishers even fund unsolicited game projects from external people/studios these days?
Yes, I'm working on one :) (although the studio is fairly well established)
Author
Quote:Original post by DrazgalQuote:Original post by Andrew Russell
Do publishers even fund unsolicited game projects from external people/studios these days?
Yes, I'm working on one :) (although the studio is fairly well established)
How much of a game did you make before you approached funding solutions? What were your goals? Did you start making a complete game, or did make a demo ready for presentation?
Quote:Original post by FrankDanJohansen
The package needs to look industry professional and needs to shine an undeniable quality equal to block-buster games. (Now I am talking console games).
Wrong - they don't have to look industry professional they have to be industry professional. Having a demo simply isn't enough. You (and your team) have to have proven industry experience. No publisher will will sign an inexperienced team to the tune of $16 Million+, because publishers know something that inexperienced teams don't. They know that making a demo is easy, and as such is no indication of your ability to finish a high quality, triple A game.
Making a demo uses only a fraction of a machine's available resources. It's easy to get a demo running because you have vastly more system resources than you actually need and can be as sloppy as you want. Developing a full game is very different because every feature you add uses resources (memory, processor time etc) and so it becomes harder and harder to add in the subsequent features, more difficult to ensure it all works together, and more challenging to debug. The publishers also know that inexperienced people make mistakes. Those mistakes pile up throughout development; each one making the game less efficient or reducing the quality. Until, in the end, the game no longer reaches the quality levels necessary for a Triple A game.
Publishers know all this because they have been repeatedly burned over the past 20 years. Back when games cost a fraction of what they do today a failure was painful but not terminal. Now, when games cost upwards of $16 million to make they simply won't take the risk.
Quote:Original post by Andrew Russell
Do publishers even fund unsolicited game projects from external people/studios these days?
If by "external" you mean an independent (3rd party) studio staffed with proven industry professionals - yes. If you mean a team of people from outside the industry with no proven game development experience then no.
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