My guess is that if you took this poll monthly you would see a slow shift from the majority answering 'no' to a nearly unanimous 'yes' within about a year or so.

I doubt it. First, nearly unanimous yes would require nearly unanimous migration to Windows 8 within a year among developers, and even ignoring the possibility of intentional holdouts, many people simply don't upgrade operating systems unless getting a new computer, and the shelf life of a computer is significantly longer than one year. Second, economic reality is that for most commercial applications you want to write the minimum amount of code to target the largest audience possible. Given the number of potential consumers that haven't even migrated to Windows 7 yet, it doesn't seem reasonable to target Windows 8 exclusively for many applications, particularly those with academic or corporate audiences. Next, a large number of people who post here are student/hobbyists who can't afford the $100 fee to submit an application to the Microsoft app store, and even if they wanted to target Windows 8 exclusively, would do so for the desktop side rather than the metro side. Finally, this is a board where a significant fraction don't even target Windows, much less a specific version of Windows.

Hell no, same reason as I won't touch iOS unless I'm paid well to do so. Why would I want to subject my creative output to moral censorship by some random asshole on Microsoft or Apple payroll, on the other side of the globe? Risk my apps being continually rejected with bad or no explanation?

SiCrane I admit that saying it would only take a single year would be quite a fast move, but I did have some reason for it and was thinking more along the lines of indies rather than the big guys. Of course I could also be absolutely wrong with my statement as well.

Basically my thinking is that it gives indies another storefront to stand out and sell their titles having broad reach as long as the potential customer base does in fact move over. In theory (and if it follows iOS, etc) give indies and smaller studios help in recognition either by being featured on the store, and having one place to look rather than people having to surf the web looking for a game they want to play. It doesn't solve the issues in marketing, branding, etc... but it does make it ten times easier to find games and applications having them all in one place (for example when they added the MacOS App Store I found a bunch of small tools and apps that I would have been using all along but I had no idea they even existed!)

Regarding the submission fee I am not in full agreement, but again I could be wrong. Of course people don't like to have the submission paywalls (i.e. Mac, iOS, Steam) but if someone builds a game that is polished enough to actually be worth selling they can probably come up with the submission fee. I know I am generalizing/guessing on that point but that was also a something I read a lot regarding the iOS app store when it launched but I really haven't heard it since then.

Finally, this is a board where a significant fraction don't even target Windows, much less a specific version of Windows.

I agree with you there, the only reason I boot into Win7 is to play games or work on a port The sole reason I'll be picking up Windows 8 (at some point in the future) is for porting our title to metro.

Regarding the submission fee I am not in full agreement, but again I could be wrong. Of course people don't like to have the submission paywalls (i.e. Mac, iOS, Steam) but if someone builds a game that is polished enough to actually be worth selling they can probably come up with the submission fee. I know I am generalizing/guessing on that point but that was also a something I read a lot regarding the iOS app store when it launched but I really haven't heard it since then.

Most of the students and hobbyists don't intend to produce a game for sale. I'd say the most common goal for the student developers who post here would be to develop portfolio pieces to get hired at a software development house, and I don't see a lot of college student portfolio pieces on Steam.

I think that generally developers miss the point of closed app stores. Yes, they restrict what you can sell on them. Yes, it costs money to submit apps to them but they also offer a sense of safety to consumers and a direct way in which you can market your apps to the most number of people.

The Android app store is a great example of what happens when developers are given a free reign. There are lots of articles on the web that talk about how a significant minority of Android apps either leak personal information or have security issues associated with them. On the other hand since Apple (and now Microsoft) vet the apps that they allow onto their relevant app stores consumers probably feel more trusting.

Allowing developers to do what they want only works if every developer is of reasonable quality. Unfortunately this is not the case so someone must ensure that the apps that are available to consumers (who probably know nothing about security or computers in general) are of a certain standard in order to protect said users.

Crappy quality software does no one any good. Not the app store owner, nor the consumers. Developers need to start thinking like consumers, not developers. Consumers don't care what APIs you are or are not allowed to use. They just want software that works and is reasonably priced.

I think that generally developers miss the point of closed app stores. Yes, they restrict what you can sell on them. Yes, it costs money to submit apps to them but they also offer a sense of safety to consumers and a direct way in which you can market your apps to the most number of people.
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Allowing developers to do what they want only works if every developer is of reasonable quality. Unfortunately this is not the case so someone must ensure that the apps that are available to consumers (who probably know nothing about security or computers in general) are of a certain standard in order to protect said users.

They could accomplish that by doing strictly objective technical QA. However, that is not even remotely how the major app stores operate. They engage in massive censorship to shield their own apps from superior competition, protect their business models, appease their business partners, and finally, to enforce their particular morality on the content that may be offered.