Microsoft under fire

Gavin Williams · 2012-11-14T07:41:00

I wrote this in response to a post under http://www.gamedev.n...rectx-on-linux/ but it went so far off-topic that I just decided to start a new thread, which I think makes more sense. Something I occasionally see in posts is M$ [/quote] M$ Appl$ Andr$id XB$x Nint$ndo .. I guess it's easier to put a dollar sign into MS but if that's the only company that can be associated with money and corporate power then pershaps it's not always easy to understand how business works, and what it takes to put these nice computers on our desks and into our pockets. Microsoft just happens to be the best at what it does in particular domains. But referring to Micro$oft with the dollar sign embedded implies that they are somehow selfish or greedy or after money more than everyone else, and that is a plainly immature view of the situation. Apple is valued at $658 billion, while Microsoft is valued at $258 billion, so who should have a dollar sign in their name ? Neither I would say, but it seems to be trendy to use M$ in certain circles. If they didn't make money, they wouldn't exist, at least in their current form. And there would be someone else in their place. There are always major players in every market. There's nothing wrong with that. Another occasionally mentioned sentiment is M$ is losing popularity[/quote] I think that is a massive oversimplificiation of the global computing marking. Windows now runs on over 1 billion devices, and that figure will only grow, I've read that although PC's took 30 years to reach that mark, it will be doubled in the next 10 years. And if you look at some figures, and I present just one set of the many available figures (these figures are derived from internet usage data from w3schools). It is clear that Linux and Mac are increasing their market share (which is fantastic), but Microsoft is holding it's own quite comfortably. I see the usage of 'M$' and other circulating comments about the failure of Windows as an expression of a 'fantasy of decline' which isn't uncommon. It's good to be passionate about something you love and hope for it's survival or success, or hope that the other guy doesn't crush your dreams. But to condemn without good cause or falsely represent an entity and it's failure isn't actually adding anything to the discussion IMO. Microsoft isn't going to give up the desktop OS struggle, because there is no struggle, although I'm sure this is not a commonly held view of possibility, merely one held by a very select minority to which this article may be directed. Microsoft will probably be building desktop (and other) operating systems far beyond our personal lifetimes. And any speculation beyond that is pure fantasy and it becomes a philosophical and demographic discussion. I would expect the trend in growth for Mac to continue, I'm not so sure about Linux though. I can't foresee either OS supplanting Windows as the market leader any time soon, and their is no one else in the running. Although if you look at more specific markets like living-room gaming or tablets or others then the situation is more complex, Microsoft isn't even a serious player in some of those markets (yet). Mac may well continue to grow as they have a strong financial position and have taken some clear and decisive steps towards new technologies and methods. But I actually would be surprised if Linux doesn't peak soon. I don't see Linux as a viable product in the wider market. And even if it were to improve to the point that it may be usable by a wider audience, I imagine it would have to be presented to us in a different package (if that's even possible) in order to grow further. It will be interesting to see how the Surface and Metro change the playing field. I predict that either the first or second generation Surface and OEM interpretations will easily compete with iPad and Android implementations. And will give Microsoft a decent share of the tablet market. I think they've done something really right with Windows 8 and Metro. I think the nay-sayers are too stuck in their traditional views of Windows and just don't understand the dynamacy and expectations of the casual market. Most home and street users don't need Windows as we know it (likewise could be said for Linux/Mac). It's actually too flexible and configurable, too much can happen with your installation. There is a demand for simpler and domain specific devices. The growth of console gaming demonstrates that precisely. The growth of smart phones and tablets demonstrates that, and other devices, E-Readers, Media hubs etc. There are surely other markets yet unexplored. Windows 8 and Metro represent Microsofts attack into this new battlefield, and although it's not clear yet whether this newly devised phalanx can conquer, what is clear is that Microsoft is very serious about this battle to win our eyeballs. And whether we hate it or love it, Metro is going to change the way Microsoft thinks about software and services. Windows 8 released October 26, just over a week ago has already sold millions of copies but it's uptake may be slower when compared to Windows 7. But it's still an absolute player in the OS stakes. Looking at the steam survey page, the figures for Windows 8 users shows : Windows 8 64 bit 1.85% +0.71% I'm not sure if that's a good or underwhelming uptake of the new Windows, remembering that the figure is specific to gaming systems. But looking back at the internet access figures XP will continue to drop it's user-base and Vista has a few percentage points there too that will probably move to Windows 8. Within 2 or 3 years from now, Windows 8 will be in 2nd position after Windows 7. And it's evident that a new edition of Windows immediately stops the 'relative' growth of the previous edition. This trend should continue even with the mighty Windows 7, but we will have to wait to see if that happens given the uncertainty about the new Windows. Any notion that Microsoft [Windows] is losing popularity however does not seem to me to be well founded. The worlds technologies are diversifying and major OS providers are scrambling to position themselves within these new emerging markets. This is a good thing for the consumer. And it's a good thing for developers. I for one am looking forward to the ensuing technology wars. Peace.

GDNet Lounge Community

Started by Gavin Williams November 03, 2012 04:57 PM

51 comments, last by mike4 11 years, 5 months ago

shadowomf

322

November 04, 2012 07:52 AM

you add up windows & mac OS (& possibly IOS etc) and its prolly less than that

OS X is Unix. And many of the devices you assume running Linux are probably running a Unix-based OS.

Krohm

5,051

November 04, 2012 10:31 AM

Wow great, now pull out the "runs on routers" thing. Because those are clearly "fully featured computers".
Good to know about Android. I wonder why they had to branch it.
Personally my quality of life has greatly improved since linux in so more part of the picture.

Previously "Krohm"

RLS0812

3,045

November 04, 2012 10:47 AM

I'm still wondering why Linux still doesn't give a crap about casual computer users.

I cannot remember the books I've read any more than the meals I have eaten; even so, they have made me.

~ Ralph Waldo Emerson

Gavin Williams

986

Author

November 04, 2012 01:05 PM

Any notion that Microsoft [Windows] is losing popularity however does not seem to me to be well founded

well founded? Its proven! check statcounter.com for data, esp western countries.
Personally though I think windows is the best OS, I only use a mac cause Im developing for IOS
[/quote]

I looked at the stats on statcounter.com

I'm not sure that you and I have the same standards of proof.

samoth

9,833

November 04, 2012 01:41 PM

I'm still wondering why Linux still doesn't give a crap about casual computer users.

That's asking the wrong kind of question. Linux is just the operating system, more precisely the kernel. A lot of people confuse this, I remember reading "Windows 8 is so great, it has a cool new Task Manager and new features in Explorer" in another thread. The task manager is just a rather unimportant utility program, it is not the operating system. Explorer, likewise, is just a file manager, which is in principle swappable. The same goes for the task bar / start button or the new tile interface. These are as much "the operating system" as the desktop background image.

GNU/Linux on the other hand (note the "GNU/" part) is something that has "free Unix" (hobby) Enthusiasts as primary target group. Obviously, although not stricly opposite, this is not the same group as "casual home users".

You should be asking why there is no major distributor who cares about casual home users. Though I remember SuSE being like this, 10-15 years ago. It used to be "put in CD, click install button, and it just works, and works well". Of course that was at a time when Windows sucked ass, Apple failed big time on PowerPC, and no such thing as a GPU existed in a PC. SuSE at that time was a hundred times more stable and user friendly, and more performant than anything else (except for some unusable geeky Linux distros). No manual unpacking tar files from floppies, no editing /etc/fstab and /etc/password in vi. Insert CD, and there you go.

In the mean time, Windows has become perfectly stable and (at least up to version 7) usable, and in constrast to any Linux distro, every single piece of cheap (or expensive) hardware that you plug in comes with working IHV drivers. There is no thing that you can buy in a shop and plug into your PC that doesn't work with Windows.

Ubuntu used to be somewhat like "the new SuSE" until a year or so ago, and it even had accelerated graphics with no hassle (big, big plus). This changed drastically when everyone jumped on the "must make desktop like tablet" train, starting with Gnome 3, later copied by KDE and Unity, and finally stolen by Windows. Now all operating systems / distributions suck the same, because they have the same stupid user interfaces. Which would be fine if every computer was a tablet (then those interfaces would make sense!), but trying to make a desktop computer a tablet is just stupid.

I remember trying to install a recent SuSE version on a virtual machine not long ago. The wizard required me to click on a button somewhere on the bottom, and moving the mouse onto the button made the window manager zoom out the Window and show the action button interface or what it's called -- how fucking stupid do you have to be as a developer to ship a thing like that? I mean, they really don't want you to install their stuff, do they?

samoth

9,833

November 04, 2012 01:43 PM

I looked at the stats on statcounter.com
[...]
I'm not sure that you and I have the same standards of proof.

Hahaha, I was going to post that, too... but you should have posted the "worldwide" graph, which is even more telling. Basically that one says "Windows 7 constantly gains with XP slowly diminuishing, Apple is stagnant around 6-7%, and everything else below 1%".

Sik_the_hedgehog

3,003

November 04, 2012 02:55 PM

you dont realize android et al are based on linux, andriod activations each day = 1.3 million.

And it's just the kernel (which is Linux itself), not the whole environment you usually find in distros. Moreover, the way Android is designed is such that Google could easily replace Linux with any other kernel (no matter how different it is) and it wouldn't matter at all, so may as well forget the fact it's using that kernel.

Don't pay much attention to "the hedgehog" in my nick, it's just because "Sik" was already taken =/ By the way, Sik is pronounced like seek, not like sick.

zedz

291

November 04, 2012 05:19 PM

I'm not sure that you and I have the same standards of proof.[/quote]
youre not seeing the whole picture
look under mobile vs desktop
jan 2009 - mobile 0.6% desktop 99.4%
nov 2012 - mobile 13.38% desktop 86.62%

considering windows phone is prolly ~1-2% of mobile
that is a massive loss for windows relatively quickly, if it keeps up like this desktops will be smaller within a couple of decades (no wonder MS is doing everything to get into mobile)

look at your numbers at the top of the page
2003 - windows 95.2% -mac/linux 4.8%
2012 - windows 86.3% - mac/linux 13.7%

you were saying?

21st Century Moose

13,459

November 04, 2012 05:50 PM

You're missing the core point though, which is that for the vast majority of end-users, OS is irrelevant. People don't actually care about it, they don't care about whether or not they can study and modify the source code; the one item that the open source communities value the most is something that most people don't actually give a flying one about.

Android is a great example of this. I see figures of something like 500 million devices, but of those, what percentage of users actually bought into it because of a Linux kernel? I'll give you a hint - it's less than 1. The important criteria for a smart phone are something more like: can it make calls? Can it send SMS? Can it take photos? Can I sync it with my email? Can I browse the web on it? Can I play Angry Birds on it? Answer "yes" to those and it doesn't matter if it runs on Unix, Windows or magic jellybeans - you've got a sale.

Android is not a victory for Unix; it's a victory for the applications and services provided by the platform, and if they weren't there it would have crashed and burned. None of this is about Unix versus Windows versus iOS versus whatever tomorrow's flavour of the month is; it's all about the applications and services you give to the user, and those run on the OS, they are not the OS itself.

Direct3D has need of instancing, but we do not. We have plenty of glVertexAttrib calls.

DavidGArce1337

119

November 04, 2012 08:26 PM

I'm not sure that you and I have the same standards of proof.

youre not seeing the whole picture
look under mobile vs desktop
jan 2009 - mobile 0.6% desktop 99.4%
nov 2012 - mobile 13.38% desktop 86.62%

considering windows phone is prolly ~1-2% of mobile
that is a massive loss for windows relatively quickly, if it keeps up like this desktops will be smaller within a couple of decades (no wonder MS is doing everything to get into mobile)

look at your numbers at the top of the page
2003 - windows 95.2% -mac/linux 4.8%
2012 - windows 86.3% - mac/linux 13.7%

you were saying?
[/quote]

One question, what are the totals? The percentage is lowering but are the numbers declining?

One thing I dislike about this is, Linux crowd, where are your "killer aps"? Where are your "killer games"? All these years complaining and talking nonsense and yet, absolutely nothing to make me even think about trying the OS. Windows 8? I tried it as soon as I could. Linux(anything)...why bother?

Question two, Why even bother with something like Linux?

Question three, Why does it matter to game developers? I mean, Windows 8 is already a viable platform isn't it? Its almost as high as a 3DS, it just came out(!) and obviously higher than a PS Vita. Much higher than an Ouya will ever be. And in a year or two, much higher than this current gen of consoles put together. And that's just Windows 8(and its own Store).

My view is, MS is king on the PC. I have no reason to switch. I would like an ARM based fully functional Laptop tho. Not here yet. x86 Windows 8 Pro it is! =P

Microsoft under fire

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Microsoft under fire

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