L. Spiro out of curiosity what is the news like in Japan about the North Korean threat?
I don’t know. The only time I even catch a glimpse of TV is at lunch, and what they are watching is definitely not news.
In a poll in 2012 it was found that all age groups of South Koreans felt war was more likely than not.
Most of the criticism I am getting is related to the idea that he has no choice but to keep escalating things in an effort to prove his worthiness to his people at such a young age.
Ironically, yesterday, after I started this topic, a new news release was released.
Analysis: What's Kim Jong Un up to?
It basically says exactly what I said about him trying to prove his worth to his country.
>"I think there's a big element of domestic North Korean politics, if one can understand that concept, where clearly Kim Jong Un is not being well received," Hill told CNN.
"I think they are trying to kind of boost his status to some sort of wartime leader."
"Not only must the new 'supreme leader' see off challengers from within North Korea's perhaps skeptical military; he must also prove to his brutalized, often starving, people that threats from 'foreign imperialists' must take precedence over, say, early promises of improved living conditions.
I don’t really see how anyone can have faith that war will not happen.
Christopher Hill, a career U.S. diplomat, said the "prolonged, rather intense" flurry of tough talk out of Pyongyang shouldn't be ignored…
Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung "would make a threat, and wait for the enemy (the United States, South Korea, the U.N., or some combination of the above) to offer a bribe in exchange for their forbearance. They would take the bribe -- and they'd forbear," Kaplan writes.
"But this new Kim took the promise of a bribe -- then went ahead and carried out the threat anyway, even before the payment, in this case desperately needed food, came through. What the hell?"
I think what people aren’t realizing is just how delusional the citizens of North Korea are. Kim Fat has unrestricted Internet access and knowledge of the outside world. He does have a bit of perspective.
But the citizens know virtually nothing of the outside world. I know. I dated a North Korean. That North Korean at least had knowledge of the outside world from living in Japan, but was still a bit lost when presenting me photos of an Apple II and proclaiming, “See? We do have technology.”
The people of North Korea have almost no Internet, and restricted access at best, and have no idea what lies outside their borders. All they know is what the government feeds them, which is basically hatred towards America and the west.
And if their government tells them they have the power to take down America, that is what they believe.
Firstly, it is already wrong to suggest that their citizens don’t want war for fear of being wiped out, because they really don’t know they would be wiped out.
But not only that, even if they did know that and had a good understanding of the outside world, they would want war anyway. They don’t like Kim Fat, they are starving, they are impoverished, etc. War would be the best possible thing for them. Kim Fat is killed off, they are set free, they suddenly have Internet and food (the 2 essentials for life, plus maybe water and air), etc.
It is really simple. Those who don’t know any better want war out of hatred for America. Those who do want war as a means of being set free.
So it doesn’t hold up to say the citizens wouldn’t back him in a war.
Kim Fat on the other hand knows in the back of his head that he would get crushed and probably does want to avoid war, but:
#1: There is so much propaganda that even he is a bit delusional.
#2: He doesn’t see backing down as an option. Which is fairly clear since he threatened nuclear tests, the UN gave him food not to do it, he agreed, and then he did it anyway while the food was en-route.
Yes, it makes sense to a normal person that he should avoid war at all costs to avoid being crushed.
But how is that related to Kim Fat? I don’t see the connection.
L. Spiro
L. Spiro out of curiosity what is the news like in Japan about the North Korean threat?
I don’t know. The only time I even catch a glimpse of TV is at lunch, and what they are watching is definitely not news.
In a poll in 2012 it was found that all age groups of South Koreans felt war was more likely than not.
Most of the criticism I am getting is related to the idea that he has no choice but to keep escalating things in an effort to prove his worthiness to his people at such a young age.
Ironically, yesterday, after I started this topic, a new news release was released.
Analysis: What's Kim Jong Un up to?
It basically says exactly what I said about him trying to prove his worth to his country.
>"I think there's a big element of domestic North Korean politics, if one can understand that concept, where clearly Kim Jong Un is not being well received," Hill told CNN.
"I think they are trying to kind of boost his status to some sort of wartime leader."
"Not only must the new 'supreme leader' see off challengers from within North Korea's perhaps skeptical military; he must also prove to his brutalized, often starving, people that threats from 'foreign imperialists' must take precedence over, say, early promises of improved living conditions.
I don’t really see how anyone can have faith that war will not happen.
Christopher Hill, a career U.S. diplomat, said the "prolonged, rather intense" flurry of tough talk out of Pyongyang shouldn't be ignored…
Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung "would make a threat, and wait for the enemy (the United States, South Korea, the U.N., or some combination of the above) to offer a bribe in exchange for their forbearance. They would take the bribe -- and they'd forbear," Kaplan writes.
"But this new Kim took the promise of a bribe -- then went ahead and carried out the threat anyway, even before the payment, in this case desperately needed food, came through. What the hell?"
I think what people aren’t realizing is just how delusional the citizens of North Korea are. Kim Fat has unrestricted Internet access and knowledge of the outside world. He does have a bit of perspective.
But the citizens know virtually nothing of the outside world. I know. I dated a North Korean. That North Korean at least had knowledge of the outside world from living in Japan, but was still a bit lost when presenting me photos of an Apple II and proclaiming, “See? We do have technology.”
The people of North Korea have almost no Internet, and restricted access at best, and have no idea what lies outside their borders. All they know is what the government feeds them, which is basically hatred towards America and the west.
And if their government tells them they have the power to take down America, that is what they believe.
Firstly, it is already wrong to suggest that their citizens don’t want war for fear of being wiped out, because they really don’t know they would be wiped out.
But not only that, even if they did know that and had a good understanding of the outside world, they would want war anyway. They don’t like Kim Fat, they are starving, they are impoverished, etc. War would be the best possible thing for them. Kim Fat is killed off, they are set free, they suddenly have Internet and food (the 2 essentials for life, plus maybe water and air), etc.
It is really simple. Those who don’t know any better want war out of hatred for America. Those who do want war as a means of being set free.
So it doesn’t hold up to say the citizens wouldn’t back him in a war.
Kim Fat on the other hand knows in the back of his head that he would get crushed and probably does want to avoid war, but:
#1: There is so much propaganda that even he is a bit delusional.
#2: He doesn’t see backing down as an option. Which is fairly clear since he threatened nuclear tests, the UN gave him food not to do it, he agreed, and then he did it anyway while the food was en-route.
Yes, it makes sense to a normal person that he should avoid war at all costs to avoid being crushed.
But how is that related to Kim Fat? I don’t see the connection.
L. Spiro
I believe you are stating that North Korea is in a situation similar to that of Argentina before the Falklands War. The military junta launched a war in order to divert the attention of the people from the unpopular government to something that Argentines believed was rightfully theirs, the Falklands Islands. The junta had believed that they would be able to occupy the islands and that the UK would do nothing but go to the negotiations table. However, what ended up happening was that Margaret Thatcher found a way to get reelected by fighting for the islands. There are some key differences here.
The first and most obvious difference here is that there really isn't anything that North Korea can occupy without any retaliation from somebody. Moreover, Argentina could have won the Falklands War, had they planned on holding the islands. It would have been long and tough, but it was not beyond the realm of possibility. Here, North Korea has no hope of winning anything, other than a free one way ticket to annihilation (autographed by SK president, Japanese PM, and Barack Obama). I really doubt that Un is stupid enough to believe that he can win, but if he has deluded himself enough, then he may try something. The other difference is that we don't really know if his people are about to overthrow him. It is possible, but we cannot say that with certainty. Un may actually be desperate, or he's just rattling around so that he can get attention, like any other neglected child.
In any case, historically when dictators get desperate/delusional, they try random things. If Un really is desperate enough, or deluded enough, he may try to attack South Korea, as this is where he can maximize his damage and also begin his "world conquest". The thing is, in his delusion/desperation/stupidity, he probably will end up losing pretty damn quickly. I don't see this being a six hour war, it probably will be drawn out over a week or two. Un will try to go nuclear, but no one will retaliate with nukes, mainly because its going to probably end up hurting more than it will help.
The likelihood of war is all dependent on Un. We don't have any historical precedents for Un. We cannot make any predictions so I would say it's a toss up.
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