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      GameDev.net and CRC Press have teamed up to bring a free ebook of content curated from top titles published by CRC Press. The freebook, Practices of Game Design & Indie Game Marketing, includes chapters from The Art of Game Design: A Book of Lenses, A Practical Guide to Indie Game Marketing, and An Architectural Approach to Level Design. The GameDev.net FreeBook is relevant to game designers, developers, and those interested in learning more about the challenges in game development. We know game development can be a tough discipline and business, so we picked several chapters from CRC Press titles that we thought would be of interest to you, the GameDev.net audience, in your journey to design, develop, and market your next game. The free ebook is available through CRC Press by clicking here. The Curated Books The Art of Game Design: A Book of Lenses, Second Edition, by Jesse Schell Presents 100+ sets of questions, or different lenses, for viewing a game’s design, encompassing diverse fields such as psychology, architecture, music, film, software engineering, theme park design, mathematics, anthropology, and more. Written by one of the world's top game designers, this book describes the deepest and most fundamental principles of game design, demonstrating how tactics used in board, card, and athletic games also work in video games. It provides practical instruction on creating world-class games that will be played again and again. View it here. A Practical Guide to Indie Game Marketing, by Joel Dreskin Marketing is an essential but too frequently overlooked or minimized component of the release plan for indie games. A Practical Guide to Indie Game Marketing provides you with the tools needed to build visibility and sell your indie games. With special focus on those developers with small budgets and limited staff and resources, this book is packed with tangible recommendations and techniques that you can put to use immediately. As a seasoned professional of the indie game arena, author Joel Dreskin gives you insight into practical, real-world experiences of marketing numerous successful games and also provides stories of the failures. View it here. An Architectural Approach to Level Design This is one of the first books to integrate architectural and spatial design theory with the field of level design. The book presents architectural techniques and theories for level designers to use in their own work. It connects architecture and level design in different ways that address the practical elements of how designers construct space and the experiential elements of how and why humans interact with this space. Throughout the text, readers learn skills for spatial layout, evoking emotion through gamespaces, and creating better levels through architectural theory. View it here. Learn more and download the ebook by clicking here. Did you know? GameDev.net and CRC Press also recently teamed up to bring GDNet+ Members up to a 20% discount on all CRC Press books. Learn more about this and other benefits here.
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red_codec

how to forecast how a game will make?

6 posts in this topic

Hi folks. I'm really curious, how do you forecast the profitability of a game? I'm refering to a browser based game that sells in game cash item. And I mean precisely how do I go about forecasting the sales revenue a game like that will make? I have been told to look at the sales similar games in the genre and industry make and to use them as a benchmark. However i can't find the sales figure of similar games anywhere, similar games exist but they don't publicize their revenue earnings. How then do you go about getting an accurate estimate of a game's potential earnings?

 

Sorry obviously an amateur here, would appreciate some help please thank you.

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Hi folks. I'm really curious, how do you forecast the profitability of a game? I'm refering to a browser based game that sells in game cash item. And I mean precisely how do I go about forecasting the sales revenue a game like that will make? I have been told to look at the sales similar games in the genre and industry make and to use them as a benchmark. However i can't find the sales figure of similar games anywhere, similar games exist but they don't publicize their revenue earnings. How then do you go about getting an accurate estimate of a game's potential earnings?

 

Sorry obviously an amateur here, would appreciate some help please thank you.

 

It is a chicken-and-egg problem.

 

It should be part of your business plan.  Hoping to release a single product one time and getting rich is not a business plan.

 

You need numbers for very similar items.  Numbers are a trade secret.  So you need to get some numbers for your first product and apply to them to your second product or updates to the product.

 

 

At the moment you have no established brand.  You have no established user base.  You also probably have no marketing budget.  

 

This one is easy and common:  No established brand + no userbase + no marketing ~= 0 users.

 

So you need to use marketing to expand both your user base and to establish your brand.  Track what happens, and you establish your own metrics.   Do something.  (Probably do some marketing.  Possibly expand your existing product or release a new product.)  Measure; how much did it improve your user base or brand awareness?  If not, do something different.  Repeat and tune as long as you remain in business.

Edited by frob
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A spreadsheet like this might help: http://www.gamesbrief.com/2011/10/the-gamesbrief-free-to-play-game-forecasting-spreadsheet-can-improve-the-revenue-of-your-game/

 

Instead of guesstimating total revenue, you work on your key indicators instead, some of which you might be able to make reasonably good guesses about, and others will be less predictable. It also helps that you're more likely to be able to find monthly active user data for a similar product than you are to find monthly revenue data.

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This one is easy and common: No established brand + no userbase + no marketing ~= 0 users.

 

You can also get lucky or have a high profile personality.

I know Edmund McMillen didn't make money out of his initial games, nor did he probably advertise them, nor did he stick to a brand, nor could he easily transfer his userbase from game to game, but he certainly came up with a colorful personality that really helped create two major successes (Super Meat Boy & The Binding of Isaac).

I'd recommend having a look at Indie Game: The Movie to get a better understanding on how he has achieved this (That movie looks at 3 different independant efforts that have had an important impact on indie game development, and Super Meat Boy is discussed here and there, offering insight into their production environment and mindset).

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