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snowmanZOMG

Microsoft and the Xbox One. Thoughts?

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I agree with this assessment but I'm baffled at the idea that they'll find a market out there for a device like this.

 

Baffled, really? Home consoles today are being used for more hours to watch netflix and the like than they are for gaming. The original Wii sold a bajillion units on braindead hardware by appealing to kids, parents, and grannies with kiddy motion games. More and more people are getting their gaming fix from simpler experiences on much smaller devices. And neither console, despite their GPU improvements, represents the kind of leap over their predecessors as the previous generation did.

 

I agree with your assessment that Microsoft has foregone the high-end, but I'm baffled why you're baffled :)

 

 

Here's the scene I predict all across the US this holiday: 10s of thousands of parents, standing before Xbox One and PS4 displays, realizing that they can get an Xbox One, a game, and an extra controller for the price of the PS4. That mom and dad get all the cool TV/VoD integration when the kids are away, and that little Suzy can play all these neat Kinect games when her older siblings aren't using it. That Billie is always excited about new CoD maps, and that those are coming to XBox One first. Dad's in love with the ESPN and NFL content, and the fantasy sports integration. Mom's in love with the TV content and skype integration.

 

Do I think there might be a number of 16-30 males jumping ship to PS4 this generation, sure. Do I think that MS will more than make up the difference in appealing to a broader audience, even surer. PS4 is the stronger proposition if all you really care about is gaming, Xbox One has the stronger proposition for everyone else.

 

I don't know that Xbox will launch at a lower price, but given the difference in hardware choices, that's my prediction. We haven't seen a price disparity between similarly-capable hardware since the Saturn vs. PSOne, which we all know went to the unproven, but less expensive newcomer. I think price will have a lot of sway, especially in this economy. And Flying Spaghetti Monster help Sony if they have yield issues on their massive SoC, or supply chain issues with their unprecedented need for high-capacity GDDR5 chips.

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Honestly, how much of a difference are we really talking about as far as graphics go? I'm sure if you grab screenshots and a magnifying glass you'll be able to see the difference, but how much of a difference will this really make while you're playing?

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Honestly, how much of a difference are we really talking about as far as graphics go? I'm sure if you grab screenshots and a magnifying glass you'll be able to see the difference, but how much of a difference will this really make while you're playing?

For most AAA games there won't be a difference. Both will use the same code with a tiny bit of cross-platform binding.
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I'd guess we'll see the differences in a few years when both consoles pass the middle of their lifespan in the market with developers pushing more and more each platform's specific strengths.

 

Right now I'd expect very little difference on multi platform titles. I'm more intrigued about what the x86 (x86_64?) transition will mean on the PC side of things...

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I'm more intrigued about what the x86 (x86_64?) transition will mean on the PC side of things...

Somewhere in the region of 'none' - given that 99% of code is C or C++ in most code bases the work flow will be the same. You still can't highly tune because PCs in the wild are nothing like the consoles from a hardware/dataflow point of view.
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Do I think there might be a number of 16-30 males jumping ship to PS4 this generation, sure

 

but xbox live means all their friends will have to jump ship too ...

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I agree with this assessment but I'm baffled at the idea that they'll find a market out there for a device like this. Maybe some families will think it's a good compromise machine. But the Xbox brand has built on the loyalty of hardcore gamers and top-performing games for young men. It's too big a void to cross in my opinion, and I think they're only attempting it because their poor hardware choices have forced their hand.

 

 

You aren't looking at the big picture.  Gaming may be a multi billion dollar industry but compare wiith TV, Movies and Music it is insignificant.  What Microsoft has done is use games as an entry way to totally disrupt the home entertainment buisness.  Here in the UK we have three methods of watching TV Terrestrial, SKY (total monopoly on satalite),  or Virgin (Complete monopoly on cabel).   The XBOX One will allow me to watch almost all the content that all these providers have plus more for a fraction of the cost.

Currently with the XBOX 360 I only need a £4.99 per month Love Film subscription to watch all the best shows and a huge back catalog of movies.   For anything newer I can watch all the latest releases on demand through Blinkbox.   Sky or Virgin cost £50+ per month.   All XBOX needs is some way of paying off the sports companies and showing Live sports and they will have completly disrupted the TV and Movie industry in the UK.

You can also already watch Sky content on the XBOX if you have a sky subscription.  How long will it be before you can subscribe directly through the xbox without the need for satalite equipment?

 

Not sure how it works in other terratories but Microsofts next step would be to court the content makers directly such as HBO and Time Warner to get the content exclusively and directly and cut off Love Film, Netflix and other services.

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Baffled, really? Home consoles today are being used for more hours to watch netflix and the like than they are for gaming.

 

Maybe this is an American thing. I don't see it here in the UK.

 

The original Wii sold a bajillion units on braindead hardware by appealing to kids, parents, and grannies with kiddy motion games.

 

Sure - but it's a game console. People buy games consoles, not home entertainment systems.

 

 

You aren't looking at the big picture. Gaming may be a multi billion dollar industry but compare wiith TV, Movies and Music it is insignificant.

 

The problem is that Microsoft are not and never have been in a position to sell those things to people. There's little indication that anybody apart from gamers really want a unified tv/music/game playing device in their living room, and the family market aren't going to go to Microsoft for such a thing.

 

Here in the UK we have three methods of watching TV Terrestrial, SKY (total monopoly on satalite), or Virgin (Complete monopoly on cabel). The XBOX One will allow me to watch almost all the content that all these providers have plus more for a fraction of the cost.

 

What makes you think the price will be magically lower than the existing methods? The content owners choose the price, and the cable and satellite companies pay the content owners. The reason HBO can afford to make expensive shows like Game of Thrones is because they can charge a lot for access. Microsoft may well want exclusives on their machine but without decent market penetration in place they won't get it.

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Here in Australia there's basically only one Pay-TV provider. They normally provide their service via a dish, but some ISPs also act as relesellers who provide the service via cable or DSL. Lately, Microsoft has also gotten in on it, and they resell it through Xbox live gold. Ignoring the Internet fees and XBL gold subscription costs, it's about the same price as the regular service, but without the $100's of initial costs for a dish and a Pay-TV set top box.

Normally Pay-TV is largely sold via door-to-door salesmen (contractors) who get a percentage or your first payment as commission. I imagine MS gets a similar commission from every monthly XBL-Pay-TV payment.

So, MS has already entered the TV market here, and doing more of that with the 720 isn't a surprise.
And yeah, we don't get Hulu/Netflix/etc... Which sucks, so I imagine the whole TV-via Internet companies this is much bigger in the US.
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Here's the scene I predict all across the US this holiday: 10s of thousands of parents, standing before Xbox One and PS4 displays, realizing that they can get an Xbox One, a game, and an extra controller for the price of the PS4. That mom and dad get all the cool TV/VoD integration when the kids are away, and that little Suzy can play all these neat Kinect games when her older siblings aren't using it. That Billie is always excited about new CoD maps, and that those are coming to XBox One first. Dad's in love with the ESPN and NFL content, and the fantasy sports integration. Mom's in love with the TV content and skype integration.

 

Do I think there might be a number of 16-30 males jumping ship to PS4 this generation, sure. Do I think that MS will more than make up the difference in appealing to a broader audience, even surer. PS4 is the stronger proposition if all you really care about is gaming, Xbox One has the stronger proposition for everyone else.

 

I don't know that Xbox will launch at a lower price, but given the difference in hardware choices, that's my prediction. We haven't seen a price disparity between similarly-capable hardware since the Saturn vs. PSOne, which we all know went to the unproven, but less expensive newcomer. I think price will have a lot of sway, especially in this economy. And Flying Spaghetti Monster help Sony if they have yield issues on their massive SoC, or supply chain issues with their unprecedented need for high-capacity GDDR5 chips.

 

On the other hand, we could have a scene where shoppers go out and here's what happens: the parents won't be sure if they really want this integrated device thing, while the hardcore gamer kid will almost certainly be against it. Who does that really leave? The casual gamer? Microsoft would really have to advertise their console, way more than Nintendo does. 

 

Mostly though, an integrated home entertainment system does not have a market. Are people really going to spend $300+ on something so that they never have to pick up a remote? You can get Netflix, etc, on the PS3/PS4, and beyond that, the ability to switch to TV or a movie without a remote seems somewhat pointless. Are you really that lazy that you cannot pick up the remote, switch the input, and pick up another remote to turn on the other device? Most households will have how many devices connected to one TV? 3? Are people really going to pick this up just to be able to change between three inputs without any remote? For the average person, that seems pointless.

 

Moreover, the Wii did very well because it advertised a new kind of gaming, and initially, it did deliver a new experience. The Xbox One is trying to be a console, but not focusing on the console aspects. Whether it will appeal to people beyond the mainstream is questionable at best. 

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I dont get why ppl still want to play on consoles..computers can play games, and do everything else..How can consoles still be on market, whats the appeal? to me is zero..but probably because in Brazil its ridiculous expensive with stupid abusive taxes, both on games and console..

Is it game titles exclusivity? cant be.. that would be a market forced down ppls troat, so what Im not getting?

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Ravyne, on 23 May 2013 - 02:24, said:

Baffled, really? Home consoles today are being used for more hours to watch netflix and the like than they are for gaming.



Maybe this is an American thing. I don't see it here in the UK.

 

 

From all the friend updates on my XBOX I see it a lot in the UK.

 

The problem is that Microsoft are not and never have been in a position to sell those things to people. There's little indication that anybody apart from gamers really want a unified tv/music/game playing device in their living room, and the family market aren't going to go to Microsoft for such a thing.

 

Microsoft has already been selling this stuff (although not very well) since before the 360.  Also the number of people using iTunes, Apple TVs, Roku boxes etc would indicate that there are lots of people wanting a unified device in their living room.

 

What makes you think the price will be magically lower than the existing methods?

 

It already is cheaper.  Love Film (Amazon in the US) is only £4.99 and offers tons of box sets and movies.  They have also started making their own content now too such as the Zombieland Spinoff.  Blinkbox already offers the latest films and Box Sets (including Game of Thrones) cheaper than than Sky.  Netflix again offers a bunch movies for a very low subscription too. Then there are all the other niche ad funded services such as Crackle.   A subscription to all of these service plus a 12 month gold membership still costs me less for a whole year than a couple of months did for the Virgin package that I used to have.

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My take on "One" is that they mean "one system to do it all."  I'm going to disagree with you on "Infinity," because I think if you release a system with that name, it suggests there's nothing else you can release that will top it.  I was hoping on "Gamma" myself, since it's the 3rd system and it sounds cool.

I was thinking that if they called this one X Box Infinity, the next one could be called X Box Aleph One smile.png
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You aren't looking at the big picture.  Gaming may be a multi billion dollar industry but compare wiith TV, Movies and Music it is insignificant.  What Microsoft has done is use games as an entry way to totally disrupt the home entertainment buisness.  Here in the UK we have three methods of watching TV Terrestrial, SKY (total monopoly on satalite),  or Virgin (Complete monopoly on cabel).   The XBOX One will allow me to watch almost all the content that all these providers have plus more for a fraction of the cost.

Currently with the XBOX 360 I only need a £4.99 per month Love Film subscription to watch all the best shows and a huge back catalog of movies.   For anything newer I can watch all the latest releases on demand through Blinkbox.   Sky or Virgin cost £50+ per month.   All XBOX needs is some way of paying off the sports companies and showing Live sports and they will have completly disrupted the TV and Movie industry in the UK.

There are two separate things here - there's using a box to view Love Film etc, and there's MS launching their own service too, potentially with exclusives or live sports. Are MS planning to do the latter too? Or am I misunderstanding what you're referring to.

Even with just the former, I agree it's sensible for them to expand in this area. Whilst it's theoretically nothing new - online and "smart" TV services are becoming standard in TVs, with also loads of set-top streamer boxes to choose from, as well as online services from the likes of Sky and Virgin Media - consoles do seem to be a popular way for people to access these services. But actually moving into online TV themselves and bundling it with the consoles into a single payment plan would be a big thing.
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A lot of the other entertainment features need to be very compelling for them to even be considered as a positive for Xbox One.  The funny thing is, it really sounds like Microsoft is targeting this thing at an older generation that does things in antiquated ways.  All of my friends, we simply don't watch live TV anymore.  Not a single one of us.  I've talked to many of them, and most have had the following response of Xbox One: "Cool... if this were 10 years ago."  These TV features are simply irrelevant to us.  Live TV flat out sucks for my generation.  We don't accept it.  Between Netflix, Amazon Instant Video, and flat out piracy, my friends get everything they want and have no desire for live TV to be a part of their lives.

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I haven't watched live TV for over a year

The money I save goes on netflix + lovefilm

DVD releases and TV shows are on torrents

 

No adverts + No PVR glitches + best of terrestrial TV is free online anyway (iplayer etc.)

 

Still nobody has really solved the discovery problem though ...

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So it seems that indie publishers can't self-publish on Xbox Live Arcade. They have to have publishing from Microsoft Game Studio or a third-party publisher.

 

I heard this crazy thing at Vintage Stock (it's very much like GameStop). The Xbox One will use the Kinect to see how many people are watching a movie (on say Netflix or Amazon). And if it's past a certain number, then The One will ask for you to pay an extra fee to allow more viewers (that are physically in the same place as you). Now I don't know how true it is. So I am for now calling this a rumor from an employee from an used games store.

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On the other hand, we could have a scene where shoppers go out and here's what happens: the parents won't be sure if they really want this integrated device thing, while the hardcore gamer kid will almost certainly be against it. Who does that really leave? The casual gamer? Microsoft would really have to advertise their console, way more than Nintendo does. 

 

No one has established that the hardcore gamer would in fact choose a PS4 over the Xbox One. It has already been established that there will likely be no graphical difference between the majority of games on these consoles, and even the exclusive titles the difference would be almost unnoticeable while playing. On the other hand, the Xbox has a much better controller, a significantly better infrastructure for multiplayer games, and a friend network that millions of people are already leveraging. I'd be interested in seeing just how much the PS4 "30% faster" GPU really matters.

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So it seems that indie publishers can't self-publish on Xbox Live Arcade. They have to have publishing from Microsoft Game Studio or a third-party publisher.
 
I heard this crazy thing at Vintage Stock (it's very much like GameStop). The Xbox One will use the Kinect to see how many people are watching a movie (on say Netflix or Amazon). And if it's past a certain number, then The One will ask for you to pay an extra fee to allow more viewers (that are physically in the same place as you). Now I don't know how true it is. So I am for now calling this a rumor from an employee from an used games store.

i've heard of this rumor to. But i just don't see it happening, particularly if all i have to do to thwart it isput a bag over the sensor.
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So it seems that indie publishers can't self-publish on Xbox Live Arcade. They have to have publishing from Microsoft Game Studio or a third-party publisher.
 
I heard this crazy thing at Vintage Stock (it's very much like GameStop). The Xbox One will use the Kinect to see how many people are watching a movie (on say Netflix or Amazon). And if it's past a certain number, then The One will ask for you to pay an extra fee to allow more viewers (that are physically in the same place as you). Now I don't know how true it is. So I am for now calling this a rumor from an employee from an used games store.

i've heard of this rumor to. But i just don't see it happening, particularly if all i have to do to thwart it isput a bag over the sensor.

 

But then [in theory] The One just tells you that it can't play the video because the camera is blocked......

Edited by Alpha_ProgDes
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I don't have anything more to say on the TV aspect; I don't see a big demand for that from the current Xbox users I know, and I don't think Microsoft have the sort of retail presence that the likes of Netflix and LoveFilm have either. My prediction is that they will fail in this particular market, at least in the UK, but we'll see.

 

It has already been established that there will likely be no graphical difference between the majority of games on these consoles, and even the exclusive titles the difference would be almost unnoticeable while playing

 

No, it really has not been established. I saw one person in this thread claiming it would be the case; that is not the same as saying "it has already been established".

 

With there being a significant likelihood of the PS4 having both more memory available and more memory bandwidth, as well as more GPU power overall, there is a massive chance that the build process for many games may include downsampling textures, or using simpler shaders with fewer texture maps, when deploying to Xbox One.

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raster operations is high frequency read/write which is latency sensitive

surely bandwidth isn't going to help here ...

ESRAM has 1/5 the latency of GDDR5

and converts high frequency read/write (zbuffering + blending) of pixel shading into a single sequential write transfer to DDR3

and opens wide the pixel shaders principal bottleneck

and frees the DDR3 bus for non-rendertarget transfers

which could mean xbox has 5x latency-sensitive performance and 0.75x bandwidth sensitive performance

my money is on the xbox ...

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If you think bandwidth isn't important for graphical speed, you'd have to explain why GPU manufacturers are trying to get as much memory bandwidth as they can these days, even at the expense of latency.

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I think most people still misunderstand the changing gaming market. The 'hardcore' gamer segment is probably less than a third of the existing market, and ignoring PC-fanboys that will never switch to console, the segment growth is pretty much limited to recruiting those who are too young to have yet become loyal to one camp or the other -- 5-10 year olds that Sony is mostly ignoring. There's mothers and grandmothers logging into facebook to play casual games, tons of people hunched over their cell phones and tablets. Maybe those people aren't going to buy a console, but its indicative of a changing market, and if not those people specifically, it says that there are a lot of people out there for which the console has not traditionally appealed to.

 

The other part of the market is made up of those who game more casually, players of casual games, middle-aged moms and dads, frat-boys who play Madden and an occasional match of CoD. Microsoft is attempting to do what the Wii managed to do through innovative, casual games -- bring new consumers into the market -- through media integration, and to a lesser extent casual/kinect games for the younger audience--and, I'll say it again because I believe it so much, price. Sony's strategy is to appeal to that 30% of the market and hope that the halo effect garners enough attention from the rest of it. Microsoft is trying to appeal to more kinds of people.

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