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L. Spiro

Mars-One

82 posts in this topic


"Earth-exodus" colonies are a horribly foolish pipe dream baring some major breakthroughs in launch methods and transportation systems. The math just doesn't add up for moving vast numbers of humans from earth to another planet, they don't even add up moving vast numbers from Earth to our own moon. It costs too much and takes too much energy to even reach low earth orbit with current and foreseeable future tech. However, colonies on other planets where humans actually settle, not just visit, and produce their own science and culture are a very important part of humanity's future.

 

If you are arguing for the best method when the goal is to maximize the chance of human survival into the far future I probably agree with you.. though I don't really have an opinion.

 


Also, are you suggesting that women can't do skilled work? Population doesn't have to explode initially after touch down with every single colonist getting pregnant at once, but after the initial base is established then the growth of the first generation can begin with a fraction of the population becoming pregnant. They can continue doing their jobs for the majority of the time, shifting to lighter and lighter duties. A handful stay pregnant at any given time, and eventually you can bring the first generation to 3-10 times that of the initial colonist base. By having the entire initial crew as female you allow a greater selection of initial female sourced genes (sperm apparently stores better and is more viable than eggs), and each mother is required to give birth to fewer children over their lifespan there.

 

I was arguing that your statements do not apply if the mission objectives do not include having children on Mars, and that I believe it more likely that a reasonably current mission will not include such an objective.

Given my guessed objective, I deem gender likely to be irrelevant.

I also believe that a pregnant population that is raising several small children and babies will have some difficulties, though there might be a positive psychological aspect.

 


What is one useful thing that being male is going to give you when trying to settle another planet? Currently the only advantage that either gender has is the female womb, which we cannot yet replicate or remove and store. Male sperm? It can ship very well, and if needed a resupply mission of it can be sent by way of an unmanned probed...

 

Again, if the mission objectives include having children, I don't really have an opinion but probably agree.

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It's a scam.

No, it's not.

 

Go on a fantastic trip where no man has gone before, and not only for free, you also get a pretty good salary.

 

You have to admit that it fulfills almost all of the scam-o-matic detection rules, though:

  1. Sounds too good to be true (free trip + getting paid) ? almost certainly a scam.
  2. Logical fallacies (who needs a salary on a one-way trip to Mars, which bank on Mars will it be deposited on?) ? highly likely to be either a scam or badly planned
  3. Unrealistic expectations (NASA can't do it, but we can) ? highly likely to be either a scam or badly planned
  4. Great, representative website, many references to alleged authorities ? See Ferengi Rule of Acquisition no. 47
  5. Result unverifiable (no return trip, no way for participants to complain other than via company-controlled channels) ? highly likely to end badly, even if it does not start out as scam. Once you're no longer interesting, you'll be forgotten and left to starve (if you haven't died from radiation until then, that is).

Now the only thing that is missing to make it 100% certain to be a scam is: Decide quickly, I have another buyer interested in this car. But because it's you, I'll hold it back until tomorrow.

 

I am waiting for them to announce selected applicants will need to bring funding of $250k each or something like that.

Then everyone would simply drop out.

 

Not if you are truly logical. Applicants who are serious about their application pretty much must give them all their earnings. Seeing how you know that you will never return and will not have any use for that money (Walmart Mars is scheduled to open... when exactly?), it is only logical that you give it away. And who else would you give it to, if not the guys who help you realize your dream.

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It's a scam.

No, it's not.

 
Go on a fantastic trip where no man has gone before, and not only for free, you also get a pretty good salary.
 
You have to admit that it fulfills almost all of the scam-o-matic detection rules, though:

  • Sounds too good to be true (free trip + getting paid) ? almost certainly a scam.
  • Logical fallacies (who needs a salary on a one-way trip to Mars, which bank on Mars will it be deposited on?) ? highly likely to be either a scam or badly planned
  • Unrealistic expectations (NASA can't do it, but we can) ? highly likely to be either a scam or badly planned
  • Great, representative website, many references to alleged authorities ? See Ferengi Rule of Acquisition no. 47
  • Result unverifiable (no return trip, no way for participants to complain other than via company-controlled channels) ? highly likely to end badly, even if it does not start out as scam. Once you're no longer interesting, you'll be forgotten and left to starve (if you haven't died from radiation until then, that is).
Now the only thing that is missing to make it 100% certain to be a scam is: Decide quickly, I have another buyer interested in this car. But because it's you, I'll hold it back until tomorrow.

one of the biggest reasons NASA doesn't want to put a man on mars right now is because the return trip is the tricky part, they could do a one way trip relatively easily by comparison.

I am waiting for them to announce selected applicants will need to bring funding of $250k each or something like that.

Then everyone would simply drop out.

 
Not if you are truly logical. Applicants who are serious about their application pretty much must give them all their earnings. Seeing how you know that you will never return and will not have any use for that money (Walmart Mars is scheduled to open... when exactly?), it is only logical that you give it away. And who else would you give it to, if not the guys who help you realize your dream.


No they don't, have you never heard of familys?!, why would an applicant just give their money back when they can hand it off to their parents, or siblings, spouse, children, relatives? their's no exact reason they will need it once they leave, but that doesn't mean they can't still have use for it to some degree.

Also, what about the applicant's that arn't going to mars immediately, and might be on the sidelines for decades? They would certainly have uses for that money.
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one of the biggest reasons NASA doesn't want to put a man on mars right now is because the return trip is the tricky part, they could do a one way trip relatively easily by comparison.
You mean to say that NASA who could do this relatively easily does not find volunteers who are OK with a one-way trip? Seriously?

The USA are not interested in conquering new lands before someone else does? There be no patriots willing to go to new lands to put up their flag?

Kidding me?

 


No they don't, have you never heard of familys?!, why would an applicant just give their money back when they can hand it off to their parents, or siblings, spouse, children, relatives?
Why would someone who is at his senses leave his beloved family? Any person going on such a one-way trip must either have no family at all, or must have a seriously disturbed relationship with that family. In any case, that person wouldn't have much of a reason to give them his money.

 

On the other hand, giving your money to the organization that features your trip is very logical. You pay for a bus trip or a flight ticket, too.

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You mean to say that NASA who could do this relatively easily does not find volunteers who are OK with a one-way trip? Seriously?

Quite.
NASA has explicitly stated that they will never pursue a mission in which the astronauts never come back.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dean-regas/oneway-trip-to-mars_b_4181771.html
 

I asked a representative at the NASA center in Houston, Texas, if they would ever send a person one way. He responded, "Absolutely not." NASA had not even entertained the notion and considered it abhorrent. "We Americans," he said, "would not approve." Then he looked to his left and then right to see that no one else was listening and he whispered, "but the Russians..."

They also stated it here.
 
 
 
 

The USA are not interested in conquering new lands before someone else does?

If NASA had been less eager to include unnecessary things in their proposal such as tripling the size of the international space station and a lunar base, they wouldn’t have sent a $450-$500 billion proposal that made the governments balk (research SEI (Space Exploration Initiative) and the 90-Day Study by NASA).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Exploration_Initiative
 

The 90-Day Study estimated SEI’s long-term cost at approximately 500 billion dollars spread over 20 to 30 years. According to Steve Dick, NASA Chief Historian, the National Academy of Sciences largely concurred with the NASA study, but White House and Congressional reaction to the NASA plan was hostile, primarily due to the cost estimate.

 
Enter Robert Zubrin and Mars Direct.  It was received very well and only required $55 billion, which could easily fit within NASA’s existing budget.  It never saw the light of day because space programs that were left out, such as the international space station, were very critical of it; they wanted some money and being excluded from such a mission made them less important.  NASA made their budget plans specifically to avoid this, hence their uses of unrelated services.
 
Additionally, with presidents changing every 4 or 8 years, the longer any government-funded project takes the less likely it is to get off the ground.
Mars One is the best chance because it is not politically bound.
 
 
 
 

Why would someone who is at his senses leave his beloved family?

So everyone who goes has no parents, grandparents, etc.?
Are you aware that many Asian cultures require their children to send money to their parents from their monthly salaries?
 
 
Am I the only one doing the homework here?
If you are going to criticize everything, might you also take the time to actually fact-check your arguments?
 
 
L. Spiro

Edited by L. Spiro
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No they don't, have you never heard of familys?!, why would an applicant just give their money back when they can hand it off to their parents, or siblings, spouse, children, relatives?
Why would someone who is at his senses leave his beloved family? Any person going on such a one-way trip must either have no family at all, or must have a seriously disturbed relationship with that family.

 

 

I don't have feelings for any of my family members but they are great people. No disturbed relationships here. Now what?

 

Anyway, congratulations on getting to round 2 and good luck with getting to mars!

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Why would someone who is at his senses leave his beloved family? Any person going on such a one-way trip must either have no family at all, or must have a seriously disturbed relationship with that family. In any case, that person wouldn't have much of a reason to give them his money.

 

I disagree here. My family is very close-knit, yet I've had several brothers join the army. That's a very high percentage of being one-way, and at the very least, is a 4 to 6 year commitment to be somewhere other than where your family is. They still keep in touch with mom and dad, calling regularly, visiting several times a year - staying for a few days or a week when they can get time off from their jobs. Our get-togethers aren't stiff, awkwardly silent affairs, but the usual jesting laughing and talking about important things going on in our lives.

There's a difference between co-dependency and familial intimacy - despite being close, despite knowing each other well, that wouldn't keep us from going away for years or for life, if we thought it was the right decision to make - and we wouldn't be too troubled by it either. Lonely - yes, sad - perhaps, but that wouldn't keep us from making the tough decisions that we might feel we need to make. Naturally, it's different with spouses, and they wouldn't leave them for any longer than could be helped, because they have a partnership and commitment to their spouse.

 

Ofcourse, being Christians, it might make a big difference that we believe we'll eventually see each other again of one if us does die. wink.png

 

Also, throughout history, many people have left their families and journeyed to new lands to either pioneer the land, or just moving to an already-settled place to make "a new life" for themselves, or to take advantage of an opportunity to prosper. Sometimes they'd stay in contact through snail-mail. And not modern-day 'within a week' snail mail, but mail that took two or three months before the letter would get there, and two or three months back.

 

A Mars trip would have, at the very least, plain-text email that arrives at earth in less than half-an-hour (Curiosity was 12 minutes one-way communication, but depending on where Earth and Mars is, it can be as long as 24 minutes or as short as 4 minutes). In all likelihood, you can add in photographs, voice recordings, and probably full video recordings, which will take an hour to get there, your family can read/listen/watch, and then write/record their response and send it back within the next 48 hours. That is a huge leap forward than any other form of communication at any other point in history for settlers except for the last 150 years.

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Thing is, there's a huge difference between not having family or not being too close or not having great feelings about one's family, or even going abroad on one side, and on the other side, taking a more or less definite no-return trip. Even if you go to another country on another continent, you generally have the possibility of returning. Not so when going to Mars. It pretty much means to never see them again.

 

While I could maybe still see how this might work with leaving "family" as in "parents" (though even then I would assume that there can't be much of a healthy relationship, most parents I know would go crazy), I can't seem to agree that one could do any such thing with any other constellation that one would consider "family" such as children or a spouse.

Leaving them on a no-return trip, unless you've already totally fucked up the relationship anyway just seems totally surreal. It's more or less like committing suicide (and it may quite possibly literally end up being exactly that, given the not-so-small dangers involved). You just don't do that to people you care about (it basically says they matter less to you than the trip).

Hence my assumption that the selected people would more or less necessarily be "no family" types. If their selection process is only somewhat reasonable, I can't see them selecting someone who is in a relationship or married, or someone who is visiting his mother once every other week. This just wouldn't work.

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So what happens if after a couple of years or so we find out that Mars just isn't that interesting? We are human and after some time the amazed factor of living on Mars will fade. 

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While I could maybe still see how this might work with leaving "family" as in "parents" (though even then I would assume that there can't be much of a healthy relationship, most parents I know would go crazy), I can't seem to agree that one could do any such thing with any other constellation that one would consider "family" such as children or a spouse.
Leaving them on a no-return trip, unless you've already totally fucked up the relationship anyway just seems totally surreal. It's more or less like committing suicide (and it may quite possibly literally end up being exactly that, given the not-so-small dangers involved). You just don't do that to people you care about (it basically says they matter less to you than the trip).
Hence my assumption that the selected people would more or less necessarily be "no family" types. If their selection process is only somewhat reasonable, I can't see them selecting someone who is in a relationship or married, or someone who is visiting his mother once every other week. This just wouldn't work.


I do agree that those with spouses would probably be heavily burdened with going, but i disagree about your sentiment that those who would go have an unhealthy relationship with their family. this would be the opportunity of a life time, the first humans to step foot, and attempt to build a colony on another planet. sure your parents would probably be saddened, but i think even within a loving relationship, they could/would understand the significance/importance of leaving.
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I don’t see a point in discussing what motivates people to either part from or stay with their spouses and children.

If I had either, I would not go to Mars.  End of discussion, because aside from stating what you yourself would do everything else is just speculation and banter.

It’s useless to sit here and try to figure out what everyone else is thinking.  Take for example Kamikaze pilots.  They almost all had families and decided to leave them behind too.  We may call them crazy but their military called them heroes.  Morality is subjective and it is your place only to decide what you would do, not to judge others for what they decide to do.

 

 


So what happens if after a couple of years or so we find out that Mars just isn't that interesting? We are human and after some time the amazed factor of living on Mars will fade.

The funding will stop, supplies will not longer be sent, and if we are not self-sustainable by that time we will live for about 20 or 30 more years (which is the expected lifetime anyway) until our equipment breaks down to the point where it can’t be repaired.

 

I personally intend never to let that happen, because one of the things I will most adamantly request as a supply is a good 3D printer.  There are proper minerals on Mars to make plastics so we should never run out of printing material, and should be able to produce whatever tools we need.  Plastic won’t work for every patch that would need to be made but we should have enough of those parts to last a long while.  A metal 3D printer would be nice as well.

 

If funding was to stop after only the first mission, it would likely not shorten our lives that much, if at all.  And in 30 years a monument will be built near our landing site to remember us.

 

 

L. Spiro

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I more meant what would you guys on Mars do if Mars just isn't that interesting? You have a handful of people only to keep you company for the next 20+ years.

 

The world won't/can't sit by and let you guys die. A rescue mission will happen and that'll take resources here on earth. You can say don't come get us but I don't think it'll matter. This could cause more issues here on earth than helping advance mankind in any sort of way. If you want to make a difference I'd say get into politics and be one of the "good guys" that can set policies that help the professionals handle this sort of stuff.

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I couldn’t say.  When I get bored, I do something to stop being bored.  I’m not very experienced at boredom.  My mother complimented me on being able to find ways to entertain myself even when I was 5.

A 3D printer, PC, and Internet is all I really need for 100 years of entertainment.

And a Super Nintendo Entertainment System USB controller or 2.

And a piano.

 

 

L. Spiro

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The internet? Won't you have like 10+ min lag?


A Mars trip would have, at the very least, plain-text email that arrives at earth in less than half-an-hour (Curiosity was 12 minutes one-way communication, but depending on where Earth and Mars is, it can be as long as 24 minutes or as short as 4 minutes).



L. Spiro
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Congratz!

 

Lets hope they don't pick people that are prone to fight with each other like in other reality shows :p It's probably really interesting and I doubt you'll have time to be bored, but it will probably be times when its really hard to cope though.

 

Lots of meditation, exercise and healthy foods!

 

I think internet with 4+ minute ping would have given me a early heart attack though, I struggle already with a couple of seconds :p

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Stock up on MicroSD cards and mirror as much interesting content as possible before leaving ;)
You could take a whole library in your pocket with their storage densities!

And those old turn-based-via-email games might make a comeback, at least on mars.

Iirc, aren't there also communication blackouts when earth/mars are on opposite sides of the sun? How long do they last? Could they be avoided with relay satellites in ELO's?
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I think internet with 4+ minute ping would have given me a early heart attack though, I struggle already with a couple of seconds

I grew up in Kansas on a farm with no high-speed connections, cursed forever to ping over 200 in games.
Then I lived in Thailand where it only got worse, having to wait sometimes 20 minutes for a page to load.
In a way, I’ve been training all my life (except while in Japan where I have this connection: 3209089607.png) for crap pings.

 

 

Also, at our request they will be constantly uploading certain sites to a server on our orbiting satellite so we will in fact have instant access to the main sites we want to visit.

If it is a site such as a forum, the satellite will still be out-of-date by 4-to-24 minutes, but sites such as Wikipedia that don’t change much will basically mean up-to-date information at instant access.

 

 

 

 

And those old turn-based-via-email games might make a comeback, at least on mars.

I will probably end up brushing back up on my chess skills, getting back to http://www.chessatwork.com/.  They could make a sister site, www.chessonmars.com!

 

 

 

 

aren't there also communication blackouts when earth/mars are on opposite sides of the sun? How long do they last? Could they be avoided with relay satellites in ELO's?

There will be 3 satellites: an areostationary/geostationary one over Mars, one orbiting Mars, and one orbiting the sun.  These relay signals to existing ground satellite dishes on Earth.

The sun comes between Earth and Mars once every 26 months, and the sun-orbiting satellite handles these cases.

 

The only case that this does not handle is when the sun is between Earth and Mars and Mars is between its 2 satellites, but this is very rare, occurs after midnight on Mars, and only lasts for about 2 hours.

 

 

L. Spiro

Edited by L. Spiro
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Maybe I get what Rpiller is trying to say.

You moved pretty frequentrly (um.. every 2-3 years?) in your life, because something was not quite right in the previous places (i.e. you got bored). But now, you plan to go to a place that you can probably never able to leave, even if you get bored of it.

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Which is why I stated several times that the amount of change involved in moving to a new planet would be enough to last a lifetime.

 

But it is not as simple as that.  I moved each time because I always knew there was a place better suited for me.  I am not bored of Tokyo, and if no options closer to my biggest childhood dreams presented themselves I would stay here for life.  The only reason I would ever consider leaving Tokyo is in pursuit of a bigger dream I have always had, which is to live on another world.

 

As I said, I know only one thing: How to pursue my dreams.

Now that my biggest dream ever has shown a chance to be fulfilled, all other arguments are basically moot.

 

 

You also forget to account for how many changes this actually is.  This isn’t Tokyo direct to Mars.

This is Japan to The Netherlands, then to deserts, underwater training facilities, etc. for 10 years.

Then changing to a rocket for 7 months.

Then changing to a whole new planet.

 

This is where that argument entirely folds in on itself.

For someone who craves changes, what is the alternative?  Just stay in Tokyo for the rest of my life?  Doesn’t that sound like the exact opposite of pursuing change?

 

At some time you always reach a point where you just have to settle down.  No more change.

I’d rather it be on a whole new planet after a whole lifetime of unbelievable journeys.

 

 

L. Spiro

Edited by L. Spiro
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Btw, a heads up, the Mars-One campaign on indiegogo, after 25 days and with 21 days to go, still has gathered only about 125,000$ out of 400,000$ which is the goal.

 

 

It is also stated there, that the campaign will receive all funds even if the goal isn't met(something possible on indiegogo), which, for a project of this nature, is just so unfathomably pathetic I can't even begin to find the words to describe it fully(but also explains why exactly they didn't use the much more popular Kickstarter). So congrats, maybe the "heads" behind this campaign will get a nice 200K or such, which isn't enough to buy a handful of screws from a spaceshuttle, but can surely be used to buy some nice cars.

 

 

I find it interesting, as a user there commented, that Star Citizen, Roberts' space-sim game, on the other hand, has so far gathered, through crowd-funding, 35 million (which, I guess, would be enough to buy a...used and retired fighter jet maybe?)

 

 

I guess most people believe that the latter is way more likely to happen. biggrin.png

Edited by mikeman
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I think I fully understand L. Spiro.

 

I would have applied if I realize that my health would not knock me out of the game easily.

 

I'm just a serious loner and also, that, in my lives, face multiple time near death situation. From lightning strike to hydro planing on a motorbike (or a car hit me from behind) and landed so close near another vehicle (like those movies where the car inches away from your head thing - and today newspaper tells of a cyclist that is right underneath a car - not much injury lucky). and I no longer fear death - just pain.

 

And the thing is, depending on the pain, and your level of empathy, it at times look more painful than it is.

 

My brother was with my dad as he (my dad) dies, and we talked a lot about this.

 

Worst come to worst, it will be just like the ending of space cowboy. You just stare at earth until you dies. I don't think there will be rescue mission - there is already live cost if I understand. 

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Worst come to worst, it will be just like the ending of space cowboy. You just stare at earth until you dies.

 

OMG spoiler alert... lol j/k

Edited by rpiller
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Wow, people think there is even a remote chance that we are near the technology to send people to colonise mars? We struggled to land a robot with government funding, and now $400,000 of crowdfunding is going to get us there?

 

The biggest problem I see is the fact that Spiro is talking as though landing on mars and settling there is a sure thing. The simple truth is, attempting it with this organisation of crack-pots is suicide. This talk of settlement is nothing short of dellusional and I would recommend an 8 year trip to a psychologist instead.

 

Internet? It would be worse than 14.4k, and even less reliable. But who cares, if you have no earthly attachments. You can set up your own internet when you are on mars. You and the three other people in the first landing (pretending as though that won't be a crash landing, pretending as though it will ever launch).

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