How does a studio form sales expectations? Managing costs and being efficient is really important in setting the scope of the game and the costs that will be incurred during development.
Does one look at sales data for similar games?
Besides this, are there any other ways to form a reasonable estimate of potential sales?
How does a studio form sales expectations?
Does one look at sales data for similar games?
There might be some formula, even a formula which works to some degree for the 5. game in a well known series. But the truth for most (unknown) studios will be, that you can't pin a number at the expected number of sales. I think, that a common approach is
1. Invest money to create a game.
2. Calculate break even.
3a. Sales>break even => Party 
3b. Sales<break even => Dept 
Game business is a high financial risk and there seems to be three, at least partly, working approaches:
1. The hobby/indie way: try to keep the investment as low as possible. Most fulltime member do it for a share, external investment is minimal.
2. The known indie studio way: you have a small studio backed up by some known designers or games (torchlight, double fine etc.).
3. The AAA way: you have a publishing contract with a big studio.
A valid way to test your idea is crowd-funding (eg kickstarter), thought is has other disadvantages, it is a good indication if a game idea could sell.
How does a studio form sales expectations?
Does one look at sales data for similar games?There might be some formula, even a formula which works to some degree for the 5. game in a well known series. But the truth for most (unknown) studios will be, that you can't pin a number at the expected number of sales. I think, that a common approach is
1. Invest money to create a game.
2. Calculate break even.
3a. Sales>break even => Party
3b. Sales<break even => Dept
Game business is a high financial risk and there seems to be three, at least partly, working approaches:
1. The hobby/indie way: try to keep the investment as low as possible. Most fulltime member do it for a share, external investment is minimal.
2. The known indie studio way: you have a small studio backed up by some known designers or games (torchlight, double fine etc.).
3. The AAA way: you have a publishing contract with a big studio.
A valid way to test your idea is crowd-funding (eg kickstarter), thought is has other disadvantages, it is a good indication if a game idea could sell.
Will examining similar games help with estimates? But keep note to always lower drastically the sales expectations due to the "new" game being:
1) made by a new studio who nobody knows
2) with lesser scope
3) and being a new IP
Will examining similar games help with estimates?
I dont think that this will help a lot. Either you make a 1:1 clone (you will have other issues here) or your game will be different (most likely). The difference could result in flop or top. Did Notch have ever thought that Minecraft would be selling like this ? Or if estimation would work, why did THQ go bankrupt ?
If you are able to estimate the game sales of an not yet produced game, then you will earn lot of money by doing just this, estimating the games sales of games not yet finished 
Will examining similar games help with estimates?I dont think that this will help a lot. Either you make a 1:1 clone (you will have other issues here) or your game will be different (most likely). The difference could result in flop or top. Did Notch have ever thought that Minecraft would be selling like this ? Or if estimation would work, why did THQ go bankrupt ?
If you are able to estimate the game sales of an not yet produced game, then you will earn lot of money by doing just this, estimating the games sales of games not yet finished
Is there any way to deal with this problem of estimation? How can dev studios actually start making a game without considering how well or poorly it will sell? Surely, it can't be just a blind investment right?
For my game, we have a business impact statement, business plan, publishing plan, performance indicator statement, genre analysis, market analysis, and yes, a competitor analysis.
It's a black art, but you need to at least be able to make some ball-park estimates for what the range of possibilities are. If you're asking anyone to invest in your business/project, they'll want to see this kind of documentation... even if you don't think it's very useful yourself.
Every developer that I've worked for in the past has themselves worked for a publisher. The publisher does all this work and comes up with numbers of how much they want to spend on development and how much they want to spend on marketing/advertising, and how much they expect to make.
They'll then approach developers with a rough concept for what the game should be and a rough budget, and the developer will create a 'pitch' containing an actual development plan and cost. So, generally the devs don't worry about how much to spend -- they get told how much money is going to be spent on the game and then have to come up with a design that fits within that limit. This is an entirely different black art of estimating development costs As the dev in this situation, if your estimates are wrong and the game is late to be finished, you're not likely to get paid any extra beyond the original negotiated figures. Being late on any one out of a dozen milestones can cause a dev to go damn close to bankruptcy.
Publishers / marketers will have a very good idea of how many sales they can create from every 1$ spent on advertising (n.b. the amount spent on development doesn't really factor into their plans -- they'll be happy to market shit and make you hyped for it).
Will examining similar games help with estimates?
TeresaS, on 04 Sept 2014 - 03:03 AM, said:
Will examining similar games help with estimates?
I dont think that this will help a lot. Either you make a 1:1 clone (you will have other issues here) or your game will be different (most likely). The difference could result in flop or top. Did Notch have ever thought that Minecraft would be selling like this ? Or if estimation would work, why did THQ go bankrupt ?
If you are able to estimate the game sales of an not yet produced game, then you will earn lot of money by doing just this, estimating the games sales of games not yet finished
It doesn't really, but if you're truly serious about trying to figure out how likely your game is to sell, you can't afford not to do it.
That being said, it's a bit more complex than just looking at similar games. Games, even though they may be similar, have been produces in a different context and you need to identify what this context is before determining how likely these figures are to be similar to yours.
When was the project released? Was it a good / bad time?
What kind of hype did the project have? Was it part of a brand that has recognition? (did it get labeled "Castlevania"?)
What exposure did it get? How much of it was from actual marketing vs press being interested? (roughly helps you identify the marketing budget). Is it similar to what you intend on spending?
How much press attention did it get? Was it at PAX? How are you faring with these interviews pre-release? Is that in-line with what they had?
How "original" was their concept when it was released? How original is it now?
Who is the developer? Are they known? Do they have something unique that you don't?
How does you target audience differ from theirs? Is is the same game (clone) or did you go in a different direction with art, gameplay, etc.?
Be honest about how your game's quality compares with your reference title. The fact you're impressed with what you've achieved doesn't mean you come even close to beating your reference material. Apply that modifier to your final numbers.
Now, balance your estimated costs with your expected sales. If it's your first, second, third or fourth project, don't expect to be out of the red. Most developers break even by their 5th commercial venture.
TeresaS, on 04 Sept 2014 - 03:03 AM, said:
Will examining similar games help with estimates?
I dont think that this will help a lot. Either you make a 1:1 clone (you will have other issues here) or your game will be different (most likely). The difference could result in flop or top. Did Notch have ever thought that Minecraft would be selling like this ? Or if estimation would work, why did THQ go bankrupt ?
If you are able to estimate the game sales of an not yet produced game, then you will earn lot of money by doing just this, estimating the games sales of games not yet finished
It doesn't really, but if you're truly serious about trying to figure out how likely your game is to sell, you can't afford not to do it.
That being said, it's a bit more complex than just looking at similar games. Games, even though they may be similar, have been produces in a different context and you need to identify what this context is before determining how likely these figures are to be similar to yours.
When was the project released? Was it a good / bad time?
What kind of hype did the project have? Was it part of a brand that has recognition? (did it get labeled "Castlevania"?)
What exposure did it get? How much of it was from actual marketing vs press being interested? (roughly helps you identify the marketing budget). Is it similar to what you intend on spending?
How much press attention did it get? Was it at PAX? How are you faring with these interviews pre-release? Is that in-line with what they had?
How "original" was their concept when it was released? How original is it now?
Who is the developer? Are they known? Do they have something unique that you don't?
How does you target audience differ from theirs? Is is the same game (clone) or did you go in a different direction with art, gameplay, etc.?
Be honest about how your game's quality compares with your reference title. The fact you're impressed with what you've achieved doesn't mean you come even close to beating your reference material. Apply that modifier to your final numbers.
Now, balance your estimated costs with your expected sales. If it's your first, second, third or fourth project, don't expect to be out of the red. Most developers break even by their 5th commercial venture.
This is a very informative post - thank you so much!
One thing that has been bugging me is the inability to find just how much revenue a studio can gain out of the retail price. After publishing costs, production costs (if physical copy) distribution costs, retailer costs, just how much is left to the studio?
A PSVITA game retails for $39.99 USD in the US - unofficial resources seem to suggest only $8-10 go towards the dev studios
The same PSVITA game retails for higher in Japan, and again sources seem to suggest $13-16 go towards the dev studios for each copy sold
I guess one must know or be able to estimate just how much revenue one can receive per game sold- both digitally and physically to be able to make a cost estimate and sales expectations. How are studios going about getting such information? I would imagine if a studio has a publisher, that particular publisher can provide all the information.
