11 minutes ago, conquestor3 said:

Holy crap, this is pretty much free money. Thanks for the tip

 

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5367/Will-Donald-Trump-be-president-at-year-end-2018#data

 

Just moved $6k from starbucks stock onto yes on that.

PredictIt isn't based in the United States, because operating is technically in violation of US law. It's allowed to operate de facto (it avoids enforcment of the law) in the United States due to an agreement based on its academic focus and an "$850 cap on individual investments per question".

tl;dr No, you didn't. Or shouldn't have, at least...

15 minutes ago, conquestor3 said:

What exactly are you talking about?

What you are quoting is a post I made out of pure frustration with Donald J. Trump, from a while ago. I'm sure many understand that frustration.

16 minutes ago, conquestor3 said:

Because the narrative for most of the things that were going to get Trump "Impeached" have fallen apart.

I fail to see how this is even remotely true. And no I don't want any of your lists, defending, excuses, etc. that you've thrown at everyone since Trump started running. We all more or less know where you stand, and what you believe, true or otherwise not. There's no need to go through the mental contortions once more on this forum. I at least, have little interest in seeing/reading your specific argument this time.

16 minutes ago, conquestor3 said:

Or do you just mean in general? In general I think he's doing a pretty good job, and I love how he doesn't hesitate to throw senate republicans under the bus as well.

Anecdote, but the other people I know who voted Trump are happy with the results so far as well.

You haven't seen him do a thing wrong since he started running, so I'm not surprised by this. Only serves to underscore the point made above. We know exactly where you stand. No need to reiterate, nor defend, nor excuse. 

I have little interest in arguing over the narrative that you believe in and will probably present if this continues. So please, don't continue down this line of thought. 

5 minutes ago, conquestor3 said:

Damn, Assuming it will be rejected when I go to place it then?

 

To clarify, I sold my starbucks shares, and used the margin advance to transfer money to PredictIt. Etrade doesn't advance margin on weekends though, so I can't actually place it yet.

No idea. I'm not sure if ensuring that individual investors follow the law is their responsibility.

All I'm saying is that it sort of looks like you're either a) being less than truthful about your actual level confidence in Trump, for some reason or b) making rash and questionably legal decisions based on a poor understanding of the options presented and a potentially misplaced sense of confidence. That reminds me a bit of someone I've heard of, but I just can't place it...

2 hours ago, Gian-Reto said:

Because the results they want to see are just the other side getting riled up and running around like headless chickens. Because they want to see Trump stomping all over the real republican politicians. Because they want to see him cause havoc in the established political circles, no matter if democratic or republican.

No doubt about this that many a voter just wanted to see the "Left" (and I'm starting to hate the notion of "Left vs Right", it only serves to undermine the whole point by making this a "us vs them" argument) go crazy. And no doubt that is exactly what's happening.

2 hours ago, Gian-Reto said:

An on that he certainly delivers. If that is going to prove positive for ANYONE in the US outside of some people getting a chuckle out of it... I have my doubts. But I am sure at the moment many who voted trump are pretty happy with their vote. Because their protest hit home.

As of this moment, it isn't doing any good. Mainly because he hasn't done anything other than throw public tantrums, lash out at people, and generally run a reality TV show in the White House. But the point about certain voters is quite well noted.

2 hours ago, Gian-Reto said:

Now, I think longterm it will come back to bite them. Because their protest missed to send a message to the other side. More importantly, I don't think the left is even willing to listen. This will not end well for anyone if the left now kicks some anti-trump and anti-right machinery into high gear without even trying to understand WHY Trump made it into office... which is just as much the fault of Trumps voters and right demagoges as it is the fault of some left extremists constantly trying to rile up the other side (not saying the rightwing extremists are any better here).

In the end, the Trump voters are also part of the US population. The key to getting the white house back and maybe uniting the country just a little bit will be to understand what SOME of the more moderate trump voters want, and offering compromises they can get onboard with.

With the current political climat in the US, on the left and on the right, I have my doubts this will happen within a decade. It would involve the republicans moving closer to the mid AND the democrats doing the same. I will certainly not hold my breath.

There's a reason I hate this whole "Left vs Right" thing so much: it really is just a way to throw around BS. I don't much care whether the guy in charge is a Republican or a Democrat. What I care about is that the guy is at least moderately competent. Donald Trump is not competent by any objective standard. There are all sorts of issues about this guy that people refuse to see and simply turn it into a "Left vs Right" argument. It's infuriating. And it's not good for anyone, since this is not about Left or Right, or Liberal/Conservative, or Democrat/Republican. It's about competence. And he has no competence. Any argument otherwise is simply just delusions.

There are tons of theories about why Trump won, and depending on who you are, you believe one or the other. IMHO, Trump won mainly because of the vote in the so called "Rust Belt", which had been Clinton's so called "Firewall". Their issues have been discussed quite a bit on this forum, and I'll only add one more point here: there is no solution to 'saving' jobs. There are other solutions out there, but not 'saving' ones. Those jobs were gone before, and will only be more gone now. The problem is only going to expand as time goes on, due to technological advancements that will take jobs. We've discussed these issues quite a bit too. Do Democrats need to address these issues? Certainly they do. 

But reality is that Trump is basically a snake oil salesman: he's selling snake oil as a remedy for all when it doesn't actually do anything.

3 hours ago, Gian-Reto said:

In the meantime, IDK how much of a difference it makes if Trump is still in office after 2018 or not. The people who voted for him will not be gone once he is replaced, just as the people now complaining about him will stay. He is the symptom, not the cause of all this antagonistic climate in the US politic and society.

I do agree with this to an extent: no Trump doesn't mean that this Pandora's box will suddenly be closed: it's been opened and there's not a ton that can be done about that. 

14 hours ago, Gian-Reto said:

 

I would go one step further: this pandoras box has been open for decades. This has been starting to brew way before any of the current crop of politicians came into office. Probably it started way before Obama, Bush junior, or Bill Clinton came into office. Maybe they all contributed to make things "weirder", as the Joker would say.

But for as much as they and their administrations all did some good thing (I just assume that Bush Junior did something for someone... must have been some reason for him to stay in office 8 years), they all contributed to the pendulum swininging ever more vigorously.

After Trump, what is the next democratic candidate going to be? Can't imagine the candidate can be more incompetent to be honest, but maybe more extreme?

 

I feel like what the US politic, economy and society now needs is people to calm down, stop this name calling and lawsuit mania, infighting and segregating themselve, and people getting more and more extreme. I hope the majority can do that, and politician follow suit. Maybe then by the time Trumps first legislation ends and he either has had enough of the white house stress, or somebody better is being voted for... or he gets impeached, you never know with this guy... the country is ready to hold an actual vote over hopefully actual candidates that REALLY try to be presidents of ALL americans, not just their sponsors and the radical groups that drummed up the most vocal support for them.

Well when I say the Pandora's box has been opened, what I mean is that much of the current divisiveness and hatred is fairly recent. The discontent and changes have been around for decades, for various factors. Times are changing faster than people can keep up with them.

Never say you can't imagine a candidate more incompetent. I think many people believed that there was nobody worse than Bush. Then we got Trump.

The other thing I mean by Pandora's box is the extremism. Trump is extreme, but as far as I can see, he doesn't really believe much in anything. More extreme than that would be a zealot like Ted Cruz.

I feel most people aren't usually extremists. Problem is that partisan politics has very much become the you're with me or you're against me approach. And I, for one, have zero faith that this will go away by the next election. That's another thing that I mean by Pandora's box: this idiot train that Trump has started where he has zealot like following will only lead to the same for those who don't like him. Cycles like this are really really tough to break.