Why A.I is impossible

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116 comments, last by Alexandra Grayson 6 years, 1 month ago
On 11. 1. 2018 at 8:45 PM, zer0force said:

What is intelligence in relation to the brain? After my experiences (also with neural networks),  it's the ability to represent the outside world in miniature form inside the brain. 

Thanks for saying that, I was jammed on terms like extrapolation, simulation or applied data for that. 

 

Btw: if we can  this world miniature aka simulation call a dynamic inteligence, there is also static property

which is basically memory, ability to sort, put data in relation.

I think that very origin of this relationing can well be ourselfs. Would be interesting to build up a computer with all the operating data being a chain leading to it's existence or "life quality" and provide it world miniature model etc.

 

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On 11/01/2018 at 11:48 PM, Awoken said:

If we create a robot to visually respond to the color blue, we are not also creating a robot to experience the visual impression of said color, or for it to experience anything at all, all we are doing is getting the robot to respond to the a particular wave length and then execute some code.  Big distinction must be made between these two points, if to you, you see no difference between the two, then this is where you and I diverge.

This is actually what is at the center of the recent A.I. or "Deep Learning" revolution. You are not longer triggering code from specific events.

Rather: A modern neural network is something that is not programmed (in the traditional sense). You supply it with some inputs, and you give it a goal. It then goes on to develop (or program) all the skills that it needs by itself. You are not in control for how it achieves it's goal.

An example (that has not really happened yet): You give a swarm of neural network robots a useful goal like:  "Clean the streets".

This is a very simple goal...

Their inputs are: A camera, and some form of radio communication to coordinate with eachother.

You don't tell them what dirt looks like, and you don't supply a communications protocol.

You do grade them by how clean the streets are in the morning and how much fuel they've wasted.

Years pass, and the robots gradually get better.

The thing to be expected, is that they learned what dirty things look like .

However, you find that the communications protocol they are using is very similar to a spoken language. These robots actually learned to speak, and further more invented their own language.

Now it's true, intelligence of such magnitude out of reach of today's neural networks. However the principle is the same: Machines are responding to stimuli in ways which they were never programmed to do.

This is why "Alpha Go" and "Alpha Zero" are so special: Unlike deep blue, and previous A.I: Nobody ever taught them how to play "chess" or "go".

One could claim that this is the start of "creativity" in machines. And putting "consciousness" aside for a minute. This is the big deal with the latest developments. We have machines which can be "creative".

As a side note what I find even more threatening is: Unlike "Alpha Go" which was playing a human, "Alpha Zero" was playing the best computer program that many humans have studied and researched. I don't think there exists a game that is more studied than chess. And the shear amount of computer science skill directed at building chess engines dwarfs any other gaming AI research. And alpha zero beat all of that human effort, without building on top of it. (It learned how to play chess from nothing). Basically it means: There will soon come a time when computers will be able to write better computer programs than humans. Even worse, these programs will be so complex that they will be beyond human understanding (you will not even be able to help debug them...). I don't know about you, but as a "traditional" software dev, this makes me nervous about my job security.

My Oculus Rift Game: RaiderV

My Android VR games: Time-Rider& Dozer Driver

My browser game: Vitrage - A game of stained glass

My android games : Enemies of the Crown & Killer Bees

Yep, I'm pretty sure that sofware development and design (even GUI, game and websites) will be one of the first professions taken by AI (some areas may still remain in human hands). And it can be in some 10 years. We will all (almost) became mere hobbyists.

My English failed me again...

In the long term that happens with every job when a real AI is introduced into the mix.

 

In the next decade (Maybe 2-3 with adoption rates) I'm curious to see how our government handles the loss of trucking/taxi/delivery/manufacturing jobs. One thing would have to be taxing productivity instead of labor, but then won't every company relocate offshore?

 

Crazy import tariffs?

 

Universal basic income is way too expensive, retraining would be pointless. 

@conquestor3 what you talking about is automation, not AI. AI is a component of automation, certainly, but that isn't really what this discussion is about. 

if you think programming is like sex, you probably haven't done much of either.-------------- - capn_midnight
2 hours ago, conquestor3 said:

Universal basic income is way too expensive, retraining would be pointless. 

I don't believe this has been proven, has it?

4 hours ago, conquestor3 said:

In the next decade (Maybe 2-3 with adoption rates) I'm curious to see how our government handles the loss of trucking/taxi/delivery/manufacturing jobs. One thing would have to be taxing productivity instead of labor, but then won't every company relocate offshore?

I've thought about this quite a bit.  Right now I think there is a lot of hype around A.I, though I might be eating my own words come ten years.  But if it does live up to all the hype then there is one thing A.I is going to allow for is first world countries and their corporations to remain competitive on a global level with other developing countries and their cheap labour force. As to what happens to all the poor schleps who lost their jobs?  Well they'll have to get used to a lower standard of living and work for and shop at the title-wave of dollar-type-stores coming to a local neighbourhood near you.

2 hours ago, Oberon_Command said:

I don't believe this has been proven, has it?

According to the people who keep attacking wage growth while also complaining that people don't spend enough money any more...

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On 1/18/2018 at 5:04 PM, ChaosEngine said:

@conquestor3 what you talking about is automation, not AI. AI is a component of automation, certainly, but that isn't really what this discussion is about. 

The 2 are related though, an intelligent AI would be able to be applied to solve automation pretty quickly. A smart enough AI would be able to immediately automate intellectual jobs as well.

 

On 1/18/2018 at 6:02 PM, Oberon_Command said:

I don't believe this has been proven, has it?

It's basic math. Assuming NO operating overheads 323 million people in the USA getting just above the poverty line per year would cost over $13 trillion. The current GDP is $18.5 Trillion. Companies would rapidly flee the USA to reduce costs (They even do it to save a couple % in taxes currently), reducing that number further.

 

On 1/18/2018 at 7:41 PM, Awoken said:

 there is one thing A.I is going to allow for is first world countries and their corporations to remain competitive on a global level with other developing countries and their cheap labour force.

I'm not so sure about this one... What happens when India says "Companies based around automation will only pay 0.5% tax in our country!"? Obviously it would make more sense to relocate there, and then export from India.

 

1 hour ago, conquestor3 said:

It's basic math. Assuming NO operating overheads 323 million people in the USA getting just above the poverty line per year would cost over $13 trillion. The current GDP is $18.5 Trillion. Companies would rapidly flee the USA to reduce costs (They even do it to save a couple % in taxes currently), reducing that number further.

13 trillion / 323 million is a bit over 40k. I'm not aware of any UBI concepts where participants are to be paid $40k per year. That seems like a lot to me, especially given how low the cost of living can be outside of the major cities. Pilot programs are typically paying something in the $16-24k range (eg, the one currently underway in Ontario) and I would assume that a full-scale program would be similar. As is described here, the typical poverty rate is in that range even for families with children. Therefore, $40k is easily double the poverty rate for a lot of people - hardly "just above," so if your aim is to be just over the poverty line, $40k is far overkill.

I don't know where you got that $40k number, but I suggest that your dismissal of the concept is founded in this assumption and not any realistic conception of how UBI would actually be implemented. You're also assuming that every person living in the US would get UBI, which I strongly doubt - do non-citizens get UBI? Do children below working age get UBI? What is your source of these assumptions?

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