Can you show a screen shot of the PIX mesh window for 'Pre-' and 'Post-' vertex shader? It looks like one of the two triangles is being culled, and it would be helpful to see what w-values those triangles have before heading into the rasterizer (the xyz would be interesting too).
One other thing to try is to use the reference device and generate a PIX frame grab from that with a debug build and a release build to see if anything is different between the two, as well as to find out if it properly renders the scene. If you aren't getting any errors, and you get totally different results between debug and release builds, then it could potentially be something with your driver (have you updated recently?).
Jason, do you mean this?
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/15579799/dxscreens/pix2.jpg
It says post vertex shading disabled. I'm going to try a working version in PIX now