yep. either way, there would seem to be a conflict here though, though which license it violates (or if it does so) can probably be debated.
No, there's nothing in the D3D license that stops you using it in a GPL game.
The GPL license forbids you from mixing non-GPL-compatible libraries with your GPL libraries in your GPL application. In order to do this, you need to ask the original author of your GPL libraries to grant you an exemption.
http://www.gnu.org/licenses/gpl-faq.html#GPLIncompatibleLibs
If the library's author grants you an exemption to use their code alongside a commercial library (e.g. D3D), or if you are the author of the GPL library and grant yourself such an exemption, then there's no problem.
The other option is to argue that D3D is a "System Library", in which case the GPL grants you an automatic exemption.
the main thing is there is a certain level of probability that a game written using the DX SDK would also include some code from the SDK samples, in much the same way that code written against the Windows SDK likely contains small fragments copied from its help files
If you're ever copy&pasting code, you're walking in a grey copyright area. Reading help/sample files to get understand a use case, and the reproducing that use case yourself is very, very unlikely to count as infringement.
Copying a whole source file verbatim and slapping a different copyright notice on it, definitely is infringement.
The license on the samples is actually weakening standard copyright rules that apply to all sample code by default! They're saying that you can actually copy&paste&redistribute their verbatim code, but only under certain conditions.
and if they (physically) include any source or headers derived from the DX SDK while doing so
That's something that you never have the right to do, unless it's granted to you. Open source projects always grant you the right of redistribution, but many closed source projects don't.
Whether your game is GPL or not, you can't redistribute the DX SDK yourself; you have to tell your recipient to download it from Microsoft themselves (which requires them to agree to Microsoft's licensing terms).