I asked before if anyone thought war with North Korea was possible and was met mostly with negative feedback (as in, answers of “No”).
My point of view back then was very simple. Kim Jung Un Ill…Jong…whatever the fat kid’s name is (seriously if you want people to remember your name don’t make it 3 separate words, 1 or 2 of which are the same as other historical people whose names also take years to remember) is 30, which is already a problem as far as respect goes in his country, and he has to work hard to garner the respect of his people.
And to do that he employed exactly the same tactic as China: Start fights with other countries so that your people don’t realize how crappy their own country is (which is to say it has its perks, but then it has 10 times more problems for every perk).
The major miscalculation being that this is the soul basis of the respect he gets from his people, which means he has literally no choice but to keep escalating things until eventually war begins and his country is completely annihilated. He really can’t back down or he loses faith with his people. Not only that but he is trying to get out of his father’s shadow.
Basically, war can’t be avoided. Backing down is obviously not possible.
Neither is maintaining his current position. If all he is is threats, his people will soon realize this as well once the world just types “/ignore NorthKorea”. it isn’t enough in the long run to even just maintain his current level of threats in order to placate his people.
He literally has no choice. Backing down means losing the respect of his people which he will never be able to regain at his age.
Keeping the status quo of threats won’t be enough when his own people get tired of it and demand action.
He’s already stated he will make a pre-emptive strike, and frankly he has no choice. So war will happen.
It was also stated by some that North Korea and South Korea would not be united, but instead North Korea would become part of China.
This won’t happen. South Korea and North Korea will definitely become reunited to the chagrin of China (the article is long so to just explain its point, China does not want North Korea to start a war because then China would have one fewer ally and share one more border with an American ally (or rather the same number of borders, but a bigger one)).
My questions are:
#1: What do you think is going through Kim…Fat’s head? Clearly he is under peer pressure, but do you really think he believes he can do any damage to anyone at all? Does he really believe he could win a war? Do his people really believe that?
#2: Where do you think he will strike first? Hawaii, South Korea, Guam, and Japan have all been mentioned as possible targets.
#3: What will he strike? Military bases only? Or something like Tokyo, just to do as much damage possible before being wiped off the map?
#4: How will he strike? Starting off with nuclear? Or starting off with a large barrage of standard missiles?
#5: Do you think anyone would support him in a war in which he strikes first? Do you think it’s possible that he secretly has agreements with other countries to back him in a war, which would explain why he thinks he could actually win a war?
#6: How long do you think the war would last? 6 days? 6 hours?
#7: Same question as last time: How will North Koreans and South Koreans get along after being reunited?
#8: Japan, Australia to sanction N Korean bank as part of U.S.-led crackdown America has been called the “World Police” for a long time. Sometimes in a good way, sometimes in satire. But in this case North Korea is specifically pointing at America. Do you agree with America playing World Police in this instance? Why or why not?
Edited by L. Spiro, 26 March 2013 - 05:42 PM.