Do You Think Any REAL Start-Up Competition Could Arise For The Intel/AMD Empires?

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11 comments, last by MrJoshL 10 years, 12 months ago

The other barrier to entry of the industry is the general issue of patents. One of my friend's families are owning partners in a chip manufacturing business, the name of which is escaping me. They are one of the largest IC producers in the world for things like signal converters and stuff for radio and audio equipment, a major industry player that likely everyone has a few of their products but doesn't know it. When I asked them why they hadn't gotten into the processor and general computer market ages ago, I was told that they had calculated the risks as far too high and costly to enter. One patent issue and all their investment goes down the drain, therefore they sit in the market they're in and 'play nice'.

Old Username: Talroth
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In your opinion, do you think that any type of new start-up company could become serious competition for Intel and AMD in the consumer PC CPU market, all while creating a new architecture and instruction set (i.e. no ARM or x86, new architecture)? I understand that ARM and mobile processors are the place to be for any CPU company right now, but do you think that it is economically possible for a startup to garner enough resources and staff to create a cutting edge 10nm chip (probably 5nm in near future) for the average PC/Server market that seriously competes with Intel and certain AMD products in 6-7 years or less?

I don't think it's really a pointed question.

All ARM chips are made in China by fabs you would never recognize the name of, owned by Taiwanese ODMs you would never recognize the names of, generally working for Taiwanese OEMs you're less likely to have heard of who supply predominantly American, and a couple of scandanavian, labels. These guys already outsell Intel and AMD in the consumer computer market.

In 5 or 6 years, I see no reason why the consumer computer market should not converge with the desktop/notebook PC market and the server market. Already your typical ARM-based handheld is more powerful than a typical consumer or server blade needs and the power-saving features are far superior.

So, is you question about an IP company like ARM having its property in more consumer devices than Intel (because it already does) or about fabs having more silicon in the hands of consumers than Intel (because Intel is already waay down the list)? Or are you talking about an entirely new CPU design becoming dominant, they things happened in the 1970s and 1980s?

Stephen M. Webb
Professional Free Software Developer

Or are you talking about an entirely new CPU design becoming dominant

Yes, that was what I was talking about.

C dominates the world of linear procedural computing, which won't advance. The future lies in MASSIVE parallelism.

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