MS will release DX12, everyone will scream go mad and return to Windows, despite no actual game being made in DX12.

Sound familiar

I dont see MS going anywhere, especially not by Apple

Pretty much the response of anyone who've used Linux for a long time.
But think about the way Linux looks right now, vs only 5 years ago.
While there are still pillars in place that is obstructing the rise of Linux, modern technology and opportunities in the market are challenging those pillars every day.
And the mere fact that people have been saying Linux will rise for the past 20+ years, speaks to its potential in the market.

Yes yes, of course THIS TIME it will be different... I've been hearing that tired line since 2000 after the last 'year of the linux desk top' failed.
They said when Vista was released 'this is linux time!'
When DX11 was locked to Windows 7 it was linux/opengl's time!

And yet here we are, Windows still owns the desktop market, Win8 is making inroads for the 'hard core' Steam users (significant because everyone said that Windows 8 would flop worse than Vista) and Linux remains the firm third place and continues to be rife with political bs which will, ultimately, stop it 'rising' until one company gets behind it and uses it as a base to make their 'windows' (much like Apple did with BSD for OSX), at which point the Linux fanbase will turn on said company and around we go...

Right now we are living in exiting times, changes are on their way that will challenge the old paradigm.
Changes like the constant improvement of hardware and software, making game creation easier today then it has EVER been, look at the rise of 2D indy games, how long before these same possibilities break into the world of 3d gaming? Look at kickstarter.com right now, its happening.
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We've been living in 'exiting times' for ages now, changes are happening all the time and paradigm changes have come and gone... I remember when Java was going to save the world, you wrote your code once and it ran anywhere, how'd that work out? I'm not sure if this is the 2nd or third try at the 'thin client' cloud/web model of computing but the idea has come around again.

Indy games were the normal for ages, they have just come around again...
Kickstarter is great, but until a project finishes backed on it I'll reserve my judgement, more importantly how people react when projects which HAVE got the funding fail and they release they have sunk money into NOTHING... that'll be the intresting turning point.

Change is never good for the ruling class, odds are those systems with the best survivability will be the systems of future generations.
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Change is happening all the time... the only thing which remains constant is those who aren't, to use your term, the 'rule classes' seek to be because they believe they would never make the same mistakes as those who have come before them not realising that they themselves will become that same ruling class they wanted to over turn.

[quote name='Shaquil' timestamp='1355721926' post='5011548']Worse, only two months later Microsoft and Sony will steal all attention by announcing their new consoles at E3.

To be fair, I have the feeling Sony won't announce their console the next E3 but the one after that, and they'll slowly start getting pushed into irrelevance...

Sony's console will allow any publisher--at their own discretion--to lock discs in a way that prevents them from being resold.

I have discussed this before with somebody else, the only way this could be ever possible is by either having a custom serial code for each disc which then is checked against a server or by having a writable part in the disc which gets modified the first time it's run to include the serial code of the console where it's first run (and then watch many discs get bricked due to power outages, crashes, defective drives, etc.).

It'd be much easier and probably cheaper to just make the games download-only to achieve the same result.
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Although games journalists continue to push the idea that "download-only" is going to be the main model in the near future, they fail to see past their own social bias. The fact is, most people who have an internet connection have restrictive caps, and even those without caps don't quite have the reliability to download Fallout 4 on the night of release and be playing in a few hours. This is more and more the case outside of countries like America, Japan and the UK, where gamers are most concentrated, but it is still a great limitation. But even in these three major countries, most people just can't be arsed to download a 20 gig game.

Beyond that, there is also an entire market of gamers who, prior to Gamestop's big push for used games, actually played much fewer games per year because they didn't have the money to support the hobby (myself included). For many of these people, a download-only console is a clear message that console gaming isn't the right way to go. The same argument goes for the idea of "restricting games to a console to prevent resale" but that's why I think it will be an option only, probably used mostly on Sony games in specific.

Now for one wild definition on my end, which I doubt would happen, but hey, who knows =P Consoles and PC may eventually merge into one... just not the way everyone expects. If somebody was to make a console that's open enough to allow anybody make and distribute games for it without permission (but still with the same kind of hardware design as your usual console) and it became popular enough, it could potentially go as far as becoming a new standard for hardware and even shift the current PC hardware (especially if a custom model based on those specs which is more suited for a computer was to be made). Yes, that'd be PC merging with a console instead of the other way.

Haha that's what Windows 7 is at this point, and we see even Microsoft is running away from that. I think you've got a beautiful dream here, but the problem is an open platform like this would require some unified form of distribution and marketing, which would mean that at least in some small way there'd need to be a central hub on this console for users to have games and applications curated for them. That's the reason things like Steam can even exist these days. It's not like games are Steam-exclusive--developers and gamers have just agreed that Steam is where they'll meet to exchange, rather than on scattered and sometimes questionable websites. Although your idea in theory makes sense, I just don't see consumers headed in that direction. Right now users are on smart phones, consoles, and--counting the success of Steam, Desura and GoG--even desktops that have curated marketplaces that make decisions for the user. I think this was the ultimate conclusion of decades of being in the free world that was Windows; it's easier for everyone to have things at least a little closed.

The MineCrafts of the world are very rare ... I would like to point out similar games ( such as Terraria ) have been a flop.

How was terraia a flop? It sold over a million copies and was only made by 3 people. It only lost popularity because the devs retired while so many game elements were half finished.