Automation and the Future of Economics/Jobs (Spin Off of the AI thread)

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138 comments, last by warhound 6 years, 3 months ago

But Gian-Reto, you know, we kinda are talking about words and symbols here.

Let me explain : deltaKshatriya proposes, so to say, a system where an army of "slave robots" would be working for the needs of the majority of the population - the driving force here would be to satisfy the needs of the many, not the profits of the few. Supposedly, a central(world-wide?) planning AI would decide how this would best be done - and I guess this planning AI would also determine the wage differentials for the human jobs that still exist, in order to encourage productivity and innovation - so, for example, a neurosurgeon gets paid 3x as a school teacher.

Do I really need to say that what makes capitalism, well, capitalism, is that the decision-making process about the allocation of resources(what should be produced, what should be invested, when and where) belongs to individuals with the motive of maximizing profit? What 
deltaKshatriya is proposing here is to take this decision-making power away from individuals and entrust it into a central planning AI that would decide the allocation based on what the needs of the population are, and also possibly calculate wage differentials(I assume within reasonable limits, so for example a ratio that does not exceed 1:5 or something like that) for the highly-skilled human labour force that remains, with the goal of increasing productivity and innovation - reward those who do a better job.

This is *de facto* communism. I'm not sure it is understood fully here(even by
deltaKshatriya) that this essentially does away with capitalists completely. Capitalists' function is precisely to decide resource allocation of an enterprise - and they capture the lion share of the profits if said enterprise is successful. Take that decision-making away from competing human capitalists and give it to a central AI...what exactly do you think you have done here? You have basically completely dismantled capitalism. You have done away with the Bill Gates and the Steve Jobs - all their functions are entrusted into a central benevolent body now that makes the decision they used to make.

You have not done away with the Wozniaks, nor you have done away with the concept that the more skilled of them should enjoy more luxuries as a way to incentivize, but that is secondary. Resonable reward for harder or more high-quality work is not what makes capitalism what it is - what makes it what it is, is what you have just dismantled. It does not matter one bit if, say, more skilled engineers are paid somewhat higher or enjoy more luxuries than less skilled engineers - this is by no means incompatible with communism, though it's understandable that many people think communism has this obsessive need for everyone to get exactly an equal wage, which is false.

There is still the incentive of doing a better job - making a new invention that would be rewarded(by the central AI?) with a bonus/larger wage/access to extra luxury goods or services, but the possibility of starting your own enterprise based on that invention goes away. We have already agreed that the resource allocation is done by the central AI in order to satisfy the needs of the population, didn't we? The invention you made is put into the disposal of that central AI then, and you get your moderate material reward, along with the moral awards of contributing to the community, recognition from your peers, and the joy of solving a difficult problem. Am I wrong here to say this is how things are going to work with what 
deltaKshatriya proposes? There is a ceiling here - by working harder, or by doing higher-quality work, you can hope to get a larger wage, a larger bonus, more fame and recognition - but you cannot hope to get the power of deciding resource allocation, we already agreed this is done by the central planning AI.

So what you have done, is that you have transferred the decision-making power of the allocation of resources from individual capitalists competing for profits to a central planning entity whose state goal is to satisfy the needs of the whole population, whether currently employed or unemployed. At this point, what we are arguing here are mere words and symbols : if you guys don't want to call this "communism", then let's don't, let's find a new "brand", let's call it whatever you want, but that's what it is. It doesn't involve gulags, it doesn't involve Red Guards, it doesn't involve liquidating the kulaks, it doesn't involve Stalin's mustache, but the basic transformation is done : Allocation of resources is not done by competing individuals with profit motive, but by a central benevolent(obviously) planning body with the motive or satisfy the needs of the population.

Of course, the whole thing is an artificial model : We suppose the entirety of the population agrees on it, there is little to no resistance from those that do not want to relinquish control of their industries to a central planning AI, and the problem of "how do we ensure that a central planning body which has in its disposal the entirety of resources uses it for the good for the population and not for its own good" is solved by just making that central planning body a machine(or network of machines), which are simultaneously smarter than an equivalent central planning body composed of human planners, but also ego-less, so impossible to abuse its power. This vision is kind of disappointing to a degree, because it presupposes that humanity can never truly become a self-governed global community - we have not shed our worst qualities, we have just delegated the decisions to an machine that is free of those qualities to begin with. But I digress.

Anyway, some other asides:

Quote


It's worked so far in some ways. Not all will agree there (I'm sure @mikeman would probably disagree :P ).


Not really. Compared to feudalism, capitalism is a massive, massive improvement. No self-respecting marxist considers it some unspeakable evil that should never have existed. Straight from the communist manifesto :

Quote

The bourgeoisie, historically, has played a most revolutionary part.

The bourgeoisie, wherever it has got the upper hand, has put an end to all feudal, patriarchal, idyllic relations. It has pitilessly torn asunder the motley feudal ties that bound man to his “natural superiors”, and has left remaining no other nexus between man and man than naked self-interest, than callous “cash payment”. It has drowned the most heavenly ecstasies of religious fervour, of chivalrous enthusiasm, of philistine sentimentalism, in the icy water of egotistical calculation. It has resolved personal worth into exchange value, and in place of the numberless indefeasible chartered freedoms, has set up that single, unconscionable freedom — Free Trade. In one word, for exploitation, veiled by religious and political illusions, it has substituted naked, shameless, direct, brutal exploitation.

The bourgeoisie has stripped of its halo every occupation hitherto honoured and looked up to with reverent awe. It has converted the physician, the lawyer, the priest, the poet, the man of science, into its paid wage labourers.

The bourgeoisie has torn away from the family its sentimental veil, and has reduced the family relation to a mere money relation.

The bourgeoisie has disclosed how it came to pass that the brutal display of vigour in the Middle Ages, which reactionaries so much admire, found its fitting complement in the most slothful indolence. It has been the first to show what man’s activity can bring about. It has accomplished wonders far surpassing Egyptian pyramids, Roman aqueducts, and Gothic cathedrals; it has conducted expeditions that put in the shade all former Exoduses of nations and crusades.

 


(Also, an aside about supporting harmful regimes : At best I am no more naive than those that eat up hagiographies of individuals like Churchill).

 

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On 24/01/2018 at 10:12 AM, Gian-Reto said:

What will truck drivers do? They will rebel. They will start attacking autonomous trucks. They will try to sabotage them. Maybe some will try to compete and work themselves to death. Some of the political caste will side with them and try to regulate or downright ban autonomous trucks. They might get crafty and attack those drone trucks based on the dangers of autonomous driving (where currently, they would actually be justified).

In the long run don't think that this will effect much. If truck drivers rebel, then it will buy them some time, and the existing union members will have a job for another 20 years until they retire ( which is good! ). But no one new will become a truck driver as a carreer choice, and no one will hire them. So after a few decades the actions of the current truck drivers will become irrelavent. 

You cannot compare this to the European Uber demosntrations, because there the taxi drivers were not upset about people taking their jobs. Rather they were upset about the fact that they had to pay 10s of thousands of euros for a special taxi license. And they were required by the state to take special exams, where-as Uber drivers were bypassing this and thereby breaking the law. Although in an afterthought people might attack the new automated competition based on legislation, which means that in the comming years you will see alot of legislation and lawsuits around automated stuff. If I were a lawfirm, I would invest large sums of money in specializing in AI lawsuits. I think there are potentially trillions to be made here. Hmmm... maybe I chose the wrong job :-D

My Oculus Rift Game: RaiderV

My Android VR games: Time-Rider& Dozer Driver

My browser game: Vitrage - A game of stained glass

My android games : Enemies of the Crown & Killer Bees

1 hour ago, SillyCow said:

In the long run don't think that this will effect much. If truck drivers rebel, then it will buy them some time, and the existing union members will have a job for another 20 years until they retire ( which is good! ). But no one new will become a truck driver as a carreer choice, and no one will hire them. So after a few decades the actions of the current truck drivers will become irrelavent. 

You cannot compare this to the European Uber demosntrations, because there the taxi drivers were not upset about people taking their jobs. Rather they were upset about the fact that they had to pay 10s of thousands of euros for a special taxi license. And they were required by the state to take special exams, where-as Uber drivers were bypassing this and thereby breaking the law. Although in an afterthought people might attack the new automated competition based on legislation, which means that in the comming years you will see alot of legislation and lawsuits around automated stuff. If I were a lawfirm, I would invest large sums of money in specializing in AI lawsuits. I think there are potentially trillions to be made here. Hmmm... maybe I chose the wrong job :-D

Lets be real here, it will not only be truck drivers. Roll this automation out on to many fronts at once, at a too fast pace, and you can forget automation having any future in a free society not yet down with it.

Again, it would be different if we already had a system like the universal basic income, if humanity had some decades time to settle into the fact that working =/= being paid, and so on. At the moment, you are facing a majority of the population, even many young folks, still deeply within the 20th century mindset, for whom their job is their life... because of the fear of not getting a wage, but also because in our current society, its the only thing that give many peoples life a meaning.

 

I think what you (and many others in this topic) fail to see is this technological development is just one of many possible routes humanity can take in the next 50 years. No matter if you think this is the right way, a majority might think otherwise. And no matter how powerful the companies are that try to push that development, and how much the current political establishment is supporting them, if most people are against something, it will not happen in a democracy. See Trump, Erdogan, Polands political landscape for a potential reaction.

These politicians might just as well push AI forward, even though they probably promise something different to their voter base. But with very different motives. So be careful what you wish for....

 

If I we are at the topics of investment, I would invest into AI tech.... and into pitchforks and torches. Both of them have a good probability of being all the rage in the midterm future should things continue like this ;)

 

 

40 minutes ago, Gian-Reto said:

and into pitchforks and torches

I am actually quite serious about lawyers. I know several patent lawyers which are making great cash off of the recent tech boom. I really think there are some billion $$$ lawsuits just waiting to happen. Becoming an "Expert witness" in AI related court cases, or handling class action cases against AI using orginasations is bound to become a lucrative profession. I mean, just listen to this: (https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ted+artificial+intelligence+the+real+reason) . I can think of several million$ law suits that can be had right now!

Not to mention the opposite side (the companies selling this tech) which would want new legislation and legal defence.

 

My Oculus Rift Game: RaiderV

My Android VR games: Time-Rider& Dozer Driver

My browser game: Vitrage - A game of stained glass

My android games : Enemies of the Crown & Killer Bees

3 hours ago, mikeman said:

Kavik Kang, out of curiosity, can you shortly explain what the basic characteristics of a communist system are? Like, what makes a system "communist" in your opinion?

Read the Armageddon Chess and Territories timelines, I spent about 300 pages doing that there.  The short version... Communism emerged from the political environment of Germany, as expressed by Karl Marx and later infused with the tactics of Vladimir Lenin.  You are intimately familiar with Lenin's tactics today, although you probably don't realize it.  Like most people, you also probably refuse to accept the true nature, and size, of Soviet/Russian intelligence... "The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world that he does not exist."

Gino should probably read it too, based on his post, since he clearly does not believe that Russian intelligence exists.

"I wish that I could live it all again."

8 minutes ago, Kavik Kang said:

Read the Armageddon Chess and Territories timelines, I spent about 300 pages doing that there. 

Dude...no. :D

Then don't.  It really is your loss.

"I wish that I could live it all again."

I'm really not going to do that, no, the same way you're not going to read 300 pages of my diaries if I linked them to you. We're having a discussion *here*. Can't you explain what it is that you think makes a system communist? For example : One-party rule? Command economy? Public ownership of the means of production? Absence of money?

For example, if we don't have one-party state, is that state communist?

Also, no idea why you keep mentioning Russia, since, whatever they are...they're definitely not communist. You're not pitting capitalism vs communism anymore, you're pitting USA vs Russia. This smells like obsession with everything Russian by someone that grew up in the midst of Cold War more than anything else.

15 minutes ago, Kavik Kang said:

I spent about 300 pages doing that there

Well, and there we go again. The reason so few people actually tried to read your documents was the number of pages.

 

17 minutes ago, Kavik Kang said:

Communism emerged from the political environment of Germany, as expressed by Karl Marx and later infused with the tactics of Vladimir Lenin.  You are intimately familiar with Lenin's tactics today, although you probably don't realize it.  Like most people, you also probably refuse to accept the true nature, and size, of Soviet/Russian intelligence... "The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world that he does not exist."

Not saying you are wrong, but your response is kinda avoiding/misunderstanding the question from @mikeman... just sayin' ...

 

1 hour ago, SillyCow said:

I am actually quite serious about lawyers

Sure, and I am totally agreeing with you. Its one of the reasons why AI Tech will have a far bigger uphill struggle to get accepted into everyday life than many of the enthusiast belief today. The only reason the current algorithms and AI applications are not more fiercely fought in courts and the political arena is that most tech-illiterates haven't caught up to the fact they actually exist in the real world already.

Sadly I am also not entirely joking with the torches and pitchforks... not only because of the dawn of AI. The coming decades have a high chance to be dominated by social unrest and divisiveness, at least here in the west.

 

 

I know, it's actually in first draft state so I would not be "blindly blundering forward through trial and error, praying that things work out in the end".  Assuming that my "glorious vision" would eventually emerge within it.  I actually worked out exactly what it really is, rather than presenting vague notes of a glorious vision that can never be.  How dare I!!!

I did answer Mikeman's question, he just doesn't want to read the answer.  I can't do anything about that.

And, just because I didn't bother to mention it last time... NAZIs are the left, not the right.  They were the nationalist communists, the communists they defeated were the Marxist communists.  Welcome back to reality!

"I wish that I could live it all again."

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