What do you think about Mideast crisis

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1,520 comments, last by LessBread 17 years, 7 months ago
Quote:Original post by Iftah
ahh its good to be home.


Is everything intact? Did the food in the refrigerator spoil?

Quote:Original post by Iftah
LessBread,
Hizballah like clockwork has attacked Israeli outposts and border patrol every 2-4 months. Sniping and mortars and somtimes rockets+kidnapping attempts were repeated starting back a few months after Israel withdrew. Israel did not respond by force to the first Hizballah attacks, so don't say so fast "military first".


Um, follow the link in my last response to Dmytry. Israel did indeed respond with force to the attacks described there - air attacks and artillery fire.

Quote:Original post by Iftah
The Beirut bombing was only of a Hizballah owned buildings, in regular days the buildings are surrounded by fence and guarded with Hizballah guards so that no one will enter. Under the buildings massive bunkers held who knows what, but it wasn't civilians. The Hizballah "civilian" buildings that had their families living there were not bombed (for example near the hospital that was raided, I forgot the name of the place). Whatever deaths in Beirut are Hizballah men. They may not be all Hizballah warriors, but the bombings there are not random or evil but neccessity and result of having your army base of operations inside a city.


How do you know about the massive bunkers under those buildings if the guards don't let anyone in? And while maybe on that occaision civilian buildings weren't bombed, there were far too many reports and pictures of demolished apartment buildings during the course of the conflict to believe that civilian buildings were never bombed. Article 52.-General protection of civilian objects 3. In case of doubt whether an object which is normally dedicated to civilian purposes, such as a place of worship, a house or other dwelling or a school, is being used to make an effective contribution to military action, it shall be presumed not to be so used. [1].

Quote:Original post by Iftah
Note that outside some explosion noise and occasional power out, the Beirut life continued as normal, which is not the case in any northen Israeli town. The ambulance bombing was obviously mistaken to be some rocket transfer van, surly you don't believe ambulance would be targeted on purpose.


Continued as normal? I don't think so. That's kind of a glib thing to say actually. I went over the ambulance attacks quite a lot already. As I said back then, once or twice, even three times, I can believe it was an accident, but not 10 times.

Quote:Original post by Iftah
Quote:
As I wrote previously, they should be proud that they survived the air attacks and they held off the ground assault. If you want me to go on, they should also be proud that their indiscriminant rocket attacks killed more soldiers than civilians - which is something that the Israelis can't say about their supposedly accurate bombs. Israel has ignored the international community before, it it wanted to continue with it's ground offensive, it would have. You're obviously missing part of the picture.

wrong wrong wrong (is there any truthful senstence there?)
Hizballah did not win by military force or by Israeli civilian pressure (as it hoped), it won the world PR and its the world pressure that made Israel stop, same way as world pressure made Israel stop in 1967, 1973, and almost every military operation Israel has ever stopped. Hizballah pretty much begged for ceasefire from day 2 of the war and Israel wanted to postpone it as much as possible, any passing day was better for Israel. Read carefuly the link you posted "[3]" and you will see its the world pressure that made the difference. Interesting enough there was no world pressure on USA in Afganistan which had many air bombings as well, why didn't USA attempt to solve its problems with AlQueda with diplomatic means?


If world pressure mattered, the July 12 abduction would have unfolded along the lines of the May 28 cross border exchanges. "The answers they got didn't satisfy them. They were told that world public opinion wouldn't tolerate it," he [Yannay] says. That doesn't prove anything. That's what Yannay says he was told, but that doesn't mean that he was told the truth. Afghanistan was different because of 9/11. As for negotiating with Al Qaeda, Bush gave bin Laden what he wanted, US pulls out of Saudi Arabia, so there was no need for diplomatic means. It's also been reported that Bush turned down the Taliban's offer to hand over bin Laden: How Bush Was Offered Bin Laden and Blew It. It seems that having a bad guy on the loose is more politically useful than not.

Quote:Original post by Iftah
One Hizballah rocket had a (un)lucky shot that landed in the middle of soldiers group killing 12 (and they were not in an army base but in open ground near civilian city), the rest of the soldiers causlties died in close combat (except on the boat). I don't believe you are still protecting the firing of rockets, thats the same as protecting 9/11. I guess BinLaden should be proud. By the way, as I said the petrochemical industry near Haifa is more dangerous than firing into civilian neighborhoods, as for example one factory may contain 100 tons of amonia and tens of thousands would die from the fumes if it was hit.


What I'm saying is simply that the rockets were not all targetted at civilians. As for OBL, he accomplished what he set out to do and he probably is proud of it. I agree that hitting a petrochemical facility could well have produced far far greater casualties. If that had happened, Israel would have won the PR war.

Quote:Original post by Iftah
Perhaps you want Israel to respond in the same way it is attacked? Do you want Israel to sponser/ignore an organization that would shoot rockets into Lebanese cities and kidnap Lebanese soldiers/civilians?


I said early on that I wanted Israel to respond in the limited way it did back in May. Your reverse formulation of the situation isn't correct as it assumes that the Lebanese government sponsored Hezbollah. It seems to me that the reverse would be to sponsor an organization Lebanon that fired rockets into Syria. At any rate, Israel has sponsored a militia in Lebanon before, the South Lebanon Army. Israel has also supported the Kurds against Iran as well. And Israel has also kidnapped Lebanese civilians, remember Nasrallah the grocer and his family?

Quote:Original post by Iftah
The way I see it Israel has these choices:
1. diplomatic attempt = ignoring Hizballah's occasional sniping / kidnapping / rockets, Lebanon and the world sighs, cycle repeating 4 months later with more force to Hizballah.
2. weak military response against Hizballah outposts = same as above
3. strong military response = (slow) grinding of Hizballah infrastructure and men, Lebanese civilians hurt and Lebanese infrastructure hurt. The world and Lebanon finally sees Hizballah as a problem and things change.


It seems to me that with this last episode #3 back fired. Instead of seeing Hezbollah as the problem, the world is seeing Israel as the problem.

Quote:Original post by Iftah
If the Lebanese/UN would do their part of the resolution (forcing embargo, making buffer zone, disarming) there would be no need for the Commando raid (which was to stop Hizballah rearming). The keyword here is "need" - we do not favour any military operations we do not need for safety, hence the self defense.


It's always claimed to be self-defense.
"I thought what I'd do was, I'd pretend I was one of those deaf-mutes." - the Laughing Man
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Isn't this over already?

Israel has proven that it can kill and maim thousands of innocent civilians and destroy all the national infrastructure. Hezbollah has proven that it can effectively resist Israel and that it doesn't care where it's rockets land.

Israel has proven to be a miserable failure at politics. Hezbollah has proven that it is very shrewd at the game. Nasrallah has proven to be a strong and effective leader. Olmert has proven that he is weak un-charismatic. The win in this conflict goes to Hezbollah.

I'll break it down.

Winners:
Hezbollah
Arab pryde
Muslim pryde, boi!
Iran

Losers:
Citizens of Lebanon
Israeli government
IAF
UN
The Un-Holy Alliance (March 14th Movement)
America
France
Saudi government
Egyptian government
Jordanian government

Inconclusive:
IDF
Syrian government
Palestine
skulldrudgery--A tricky bit of toil
Quote:Original post by LessBread
Quote:Original post by shmoove
Quote:Original post by LessBread
A PR defeat? That's what the hawks said about Vietnam. From what I understand, the IDF was designed to fight fast and mobile wars not long term seige wars. That makes the notion that the army could have kept it going for years very difficult to find credible.

The army was in Lebanon for over 18 years. You don't think history is credible?


But did they keep the fighting going for all those years? I don't think so.

Yes. I can't testify to that personally.

Quote:Original post by shmoove
Quote:
The lack of clear objectives and indecisive rules of engagement indicate poor leadership. It also contradicts the notion that the war was merely a PR defeat.

Poor leadership indeed. A leader that decided to go to war, and then waged it based on public opinion.


It seems to me that there was more to it than that. It seems that Halutz wanted an air war to the detriment of the ground war. Whatever the case, it seems to me that a swift military victory would resulting in a PR victory as well.

If you're expecting me to defend my leaders then you're in for a disappointment. I wasn't a fan of them before and I'm not a fan now. The fact of the matter is that a swift military victory was never really possible. Not with the way the enemy fights. That doesn't mean any victory at all was impossible.

Quote:Original post by shmoove
Quote:
Ok, I'll find the links about rockets hitting soldiers if you find the links about Hezbollah announcing what the purpose of those rockets were.

Just look up Nasrallah's speech from July 29th. He stated the purpose of their rockets pretty clearly there.


What? Do you want me to do your homework for you too? [grin]
No, you can just admit you're wrong without any links for all I care. Seeing as it's obvious to everyone else.

shmoove
Helloooooo :) Been a long time since I've posted on gamedev... I wanted to get into the middle of this rare argument you guys have going on here. But I've decided to instead just clear up some things I've read in the last.... uh... few pages and then go back to my book...

First thign I noticed was something about the sharia stating that infidels either convert or die. Just want to say that it's not like that. The sharia states that any non-mulsim (be it jew, christian, athiest, whatever) pay a small tax (which is even less then the tax muslims have to pay) and they are protected by the governmnet. And as long as rules are followed in public places - ex: cant drink alcohol in public, you're fine. What you do in your own home is your own business and the state has no jurisdiction there.

Second thing was about Islam being a strictly sword spreading religion. Which also I wanted to point out as false:

"Islam was transported beyond the Arab lands primarily via two methods. The first was conquest in battle and was used to extend the Muslim Empire over the Maghrib (northern Africa above the Sahara Desert), Spain, Anatolia, the Balkans, India, Sicily and the Mediterranean coasts of Europe during the course of the seventh to the tenth century C.E. The second, less violent, approach was that used to expand into southeast Asia, central Asia and China, and sub-Saharan Africa. This was accomplished through the trade of spices and is what will form the crux of this study. It is also the mechanism approved by the Qur'an."

from Arab Spice Trade and Speard of Islam

take Indonesia for example. Islam went there because the traders in that region used to trade with Muslims, and they came back to their land and retold of how Muslim traders behaved and <.....skip some time.....> and you get islam in indonesia... Of course now there's a lot of shit going on there, but just note it wasn't spread violently...

Then we have:

Quote:Iftah
I don't know if its been said already in this thread, but if you look at the different active violent conflicts in the world right now you will find the majority of them one side to be Muslim. I don’t want to sound racist – I am sure the vast majority of Muslims are peaceful and kind but for whatever reason they have either tiny portion of violent extremists or an aggressive government (or both). On these conflicts you will often find Muslim terror taking a part, for example if you look at Pakistan-India conflict you will find terrorists acts against India, none in Pakistan.


None in Pakistan my foot!


Quote:Iftah
same way as some (not so few) islamists today have the clear goal of having the infidels removed. It is not a new notion for Islam - its been their way from the first Jihad at the time of Muhamad.


The goal is not having infidels removed, never has been having infidels removed. Maybe for extremists but don't say that about Muhammed (pbuh) and all the rest of the Muslims. My goal is not to have infidels removed... well, i'd like to see some infidels removed, but then I'd also like to see some so called Muslims removed :)

I highly suggest this online book: The System Of Islam
[size=2]aliak.net
Quote:Original post by LessBread
Quote:Original post by Eelco
12 if we are to believe shmoove. thats makes my guess off by nine, so it would seem my guess was the better one by a fair margin.


That's a 300% error...

Quote:Original post by Eelco
also note the difference between 'that im aware of' and your matter of factly reporting.


In otherwords, we should take note of your ignorance and laziness.


fine. and to complete the deal, we should take note of your ignorance, laziness (you didnt get the facts straight any more than i did) AND plain hard lying.
Quote:Original post by LessBread
Um, follow the link in my last response to Dmytry. Israel did indeed respond with force to the attacks described there - air attacks and artillery fire.

Uhm, you are referening to may 2006? Thats hardly "military first", I was refering to 2000-2001 Hizballahs assults which were un-answered (by military). Even 2002-2005 had barely military responses for for example unprovoced attack in 2002. There comes a point when you realize talks an weak replies won't get you anywhere and you try different methods which is around 2006.

Quote:
How do you know about the massive bunkers under those buildings if the guards don't let anyone in? And while maybe on that occaision civilian buildings weren't bombed, there were far too many reports and pictures of demolished apartment buildings during the course of the conflict to believe that civilian buildings were never bombed. Article 52.-General protection of civilian objects 3. In case of doubt whether an object which is normally dedicated to civilian purposes, such as a place of worship, a house or other dwelling or a school, is being used to make an effective contribution to military action, it shall be presumed not to be so used.

Just because you or me have doubt doesnt mean the inteligence community has doubt. You can be sure some spies have entered some places and all in-out electronic messages have been decrypted and analyzed, but natrually that is not expressed in the media. Digging a Bunker in the middle of a city is hardly secret. It was stated over and over that civilian appartments that are covering for weapons caches or such will not be protected this time.

Quote:Continued as normal? I don't think so. That's kind of a glib thing to say actually. I went over the ambulance attacks quite a lot already. As I said back then, once or twice, even three times, I can believe it was an accident, but not 10 times.

Yes, in Beirut live continued [almost] as normal as people did not fear leaving their house.
I don't know about more than one Ambulance attack, but again you trial and judge without knowing all the details, and I'm afraid we will never know. Maybe there is 100% evidence of terrorists and rockets being transfered in them? Its not so hard to believe as most of the healthcare in s.Lebanon is owned by Hizballah. Maybe the Ambulance statistics are fake? its not so hard to believe considering the lot of fraud in Palestinian and Lebanese news coverage. Sorry, but it makes less than no sense to bomb civilian ambulances so its either accidental or not civilian ambulances. Again, if you believe otherwise your common sense is so biased its not working.

Quote:
If world pressure mattered, the July 12 abduction would have unfolded along the lines of the May 28 cross border exchanges. "The answers they got didn't satisfy them. They were told that world public opinion wouldn't tolerate it," he [Yannay] says. That doesn't prove anything. That's what Yannay says he was told, but that doesn't mean that he was told the truth. Afghanistan was different because of 9/11.
[...]
What I'm saying is simply that the rockets were not all targetted at civilians. As for OBL, he accomplished what he set out to do and he probably is proud of it. I agree that hitting a petrochemical facility could well have produced far far greater casualties. If that had happened, Israel would have won the PR war.

The May was a hint Israel will respond with greater force from now on, the hint was not taken from Hizballah or from Lebanon (it equates to option #2 in my post). The abduction is more serious, world PR understood this and all over the world countries blamed Hizballah for Israel's response including the G8 confrence and some Arab countries, so this is why "world pressure" was not calling for cease fire as in May. Yannay is not the only one who says this, there are many reports in Israeli media of officers and soldiers complaining they risked their lives because of PR which did not happen in the first weeks of the war. The public and the soldiers here did not want the war to stop at this point, it was world pressure which stopped it, not quite a victory for Hizballah. There are reports that IDF was surprised by the world pressure - they meant a cease fire to be forced after the two weeks of air bombings which would not be translated to Hizballah victory, so the pressure maybe was too weak at first. The Hizballah rockets laned in and near cities and towns, so they were aimed at civilians. Aiming for industrial or commericial parts is still civilian (as the world trade center). By the way you are wrong in your order of things - Hizballah fired rockets for a few hours while the abduction took place as it did with most kidnap attempts, so it is not a response to IAF bombing but other way. Excuse us we don't want to wait for an Israeli 9/11 or an Israeli Pearl-Harbor, I think its maybe better for PR but worst for everything else. Also, the frequency of events matters, not only the damage the events cause. The point I tried to make when mentioning OBL was on the word "should". BinLaden and Nasralla are probably proud of their survival and the damage they caused, saying they "should be proud" means you agree with their way. You often step on the line of being pro-terrorist and sometimes you cross it, try to be more balanced and see both sides, your view of things is so way out there its almost blind hatred. I think Dmytry also felt it when he replied to you.

Quote:
I said early on that I wanted Israel to respond in the limited way it did back in May. Your reverse formulation of the situation isn't correct as it assumes that the Lebanese government sponsored Hezbollah. It seems to me that the reverse would be to sponsor an organization Lebanon that fired rockets into Syria. At any rate, Israel has sponsored a militia in Lebanon before, the South Lebanon Army. Israel has also supported the Kurds against Iran as well. And Israel has also kidnapped Lebanese civilians, remember Nasrallah the grocer and his family?

The reverse formulation should be USA sponsering a anti-Lebanon terrorist orgnization in Israel and Israel totaly ignoring it (not even verbal attempts to stop it).
I despise your hints that the grocer was kidnapped by mistake thanks to his name, there are hundreds of people named Hassan Nasralla in south Lebanon and if this guy was taken it was for some inteligence report or other reason. Either he is a grocer by day and some Hizballah operative at night or he is an Israeli spy who wanted to get out of the war (sometimes such spies are faked as abducted so their families will not be hurt, I know this to be true for Palestinians). If it was a mistake he was probably freed with cash and appologies. Again, you are trialing and judging without knowing the classified data and your speculations make no sense. Did Israel abduct everyone named Hassan Nasralla?

Quote:
It seems to me that with this last episode #3 back fired. Instead of seeing Hezbollah as the problem, the world is seeing Israel as the problem.

seems to me you are wrong - for example the Lebanese army is south of the Litany for the first time, the Lebanese PM finally threatens Hizballah not to fire rockets. The UN decisions are embargo on Hizballah not on Israel and the (intended) buffer zone is in s.Lebanon not in Israel. There are ample comments such as "Israel has the right to protect itself". True embargo/buffer in Israel would result in US veto, but still I think the intended outcome is to weaken Hizballah which is the source of all problems in this border.

Quote:
Quote:Original post by Iftah
If the Lebanese/UN would do their part of the resolution (forcing embargo, making buffer zone, disarming) there would be no need for the Commando raid (which was to stop Hizballah rearming). The keyword here is "need" - we do not favour any military operations we do not need for safety, hence the self defense.


It's always claimed to be self-defense.

I've heard reports the Commandos there were just meant for inteligence gathering. After their mission was complete they were met with Hizballa patrols and were suspected and fire "erupted".

[Edited by - Iftah on August 20, 2006 6:20:14 PM]
I'd LOVE to see what the US would do to say, Mexico if it shot one missle on San Francisco, wait, we don't have to wait for that, look what happened to Afghanistan just because of one terrorist group that happened to be there. and look what happened to Iraq - a country destroyed before it even attacked the US.

It just annoys me to see people judging others before looking at themselves.

And about the "innocent civilians" that died in Lebanon:
It is common knowlage that civilians there purposly live in houses that are on top of bunkers knowing that Israel does all that it possibly can to avoid striking them.
"We've all heard that a million monkeys banging on a million typewriters will eventually reproduce the entire works of Shakespeare. Now, thanks to the internet, we know this is not true." -- Professor Robert Silensky
IFooBar:
welcome back to gamedev :)
I wish you would join the conversation because I'm very intereseted in talking to a sensable Muslim, as you appear to be. I hope I haven't offended you with my comments, I tried to be clear I am not against the religion or against the people, its the extremists who have a problem with me that I find troublsome. I have to admit I am not very wise about the Islam or the Islamist countries.
As far as I know there have been no Indian terrorists attacks on Pakistan, there may have been border clashes and mob killings (usualy in response to terror attacks) in Kashmir, but as far as I know there were no terrorists bombs such as the ones India suffers. I am not saying the Indian people are innocents, I just made a note of which side chooses terror as a weapon, if I was wrong then I am sorry.
I didn't say that Islam is strictly a sword spreading religion, but even your source says the sword served a prime method. This is not something exceptional to Islam, other religions had their religious wars years ago, the problem is that the Islam religion is the main fuel for many terrorists organizations now. The "Spreading by sword" is not the only side of the problem, there is also great anger at anything which may offend the religion which easily translates to religion encouraged violence. Many mosques call for violance and destruction of Israel in the name of religion every friday. For example the excuse to start the current intifada was the (false) claims that Israel intended to take control of Muslim religious places in Jerusalem.

I do not believe the majority of Palestinians are peaceful, sadly mostly because of what my country put them through since 1948. I do hope and believe the Muslims in the world are sensable and peaceful except maybe a tiny percentage.
Quote:Original post by shmoove
Quote:Original post by LessBread
Quote:Original post by shmoove
Quote:Original post by LessBread
A PR defeat? That's what the hawks said about Vietnam. From what I understand, the IDF was designed to fight fast and mobile wars not long term seige wars. That makes the notion that the army could have kept it going for years very difficult to find credible.

The army was in Lebanon for over 18 years. You don't think history is credible?

But did they keep the fighting going for all those years? I don't think so.

Yes. I can't testify to that personally.


Israeli forces were engaged in constant fighting for all those years?

Quote:Original post by shmoove
Quote:
Quote:Original post by shmoove
Quote:
The lack of clear objectives and indecisive rules of engagement indicate poor leadership. It also contradicts the notion that the war was merely a PR defeat.

Poor leadership indeed. A leader that decided to go to war, and then waged it based on public opinion.

It seems to me that there was more to it than that. It seems that Halutz wanted an air war to the detriment of the ground war. Whatever the case, it seems to me that a swift military victory would resulting in a PR victory as well.

If you're expecting me to defend my leaders then you're in for a disappointment. I wasn't a fan of them before and I'm not a fan now. The fact of the matter is that a swift military victory was never really possible. Not with the way the enemy fights. That doesn't mean any victory at all was impossible.


I'm not expecting you to defend the leaders of your country and I certainly hope that you don't expect the same from me. I wouldn't rule out that a swift military victory was possibile. I think it was possible, but not probable. Also, I wasn't trying to say that victory was impossible, but that ego and overconfidence made it much less probable. Air power has it's limits.

Quote:Original post by shmoove
Quote:
Quote:Original post by shmoove
Quote:
Ok, I'll find the links about rockets hitting soldiers if you find the links about Hezbollah announcing what the purpose of those rockets were.

Just look up Nasrallah's speech from July 29th. He stated the purpose of their rockets pretty clearly there.

What? Do you want me to do your homework for you too? [grin]

No, you can just admit you're wrong without any links for all I care. Seeing as it's obvious to everyone else.


Yes, I was mistaken. Hezbollah rockets killed more civilians then they did soldiers. Overall, however, Hezbollah killed more soldiers than civilians. The same cannot be said of Israel.

[Edited by - LessBread on August 20, 2006 7:54:01 PM]
"I thought what I'd do was, I'd pretend I was one of those deaf-mutes." - the Laughing Man
Quote:Original post by Eelco
Quote:Original post by LessBread
Quote:Original post by Eelco
12 if we are to believe shmoove. thats makes my guess off by nine, so it would seem my guess was the better one by a fair margin.

That's a 300% error...
Quote:Original post by Eelco
also note the difference between 'that im aware of' and your matter of factly reporting.

In otherwords, we should take note of your ignorance and laziness.

fine. and to complete the deal, we should take note of your ignorance, laziness (you didnt get the facts straight any more than i did) AND plain hard lying.


And with no arguments left you're now calling me a liar... sheesh.
"I thought what I'd do was, I'd pretend I was one of those deaf-mutes." - the Laughing Man

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